In This Article:
By Alun John and Anshuman Daga
HONG KONG/SINGAPORE (Reuters) - Southeast Asian stocks are becoming a haven for international investors fleeing a worsening outlook for global equities who are hoping for sustained strength in the commodity-heavy economies of the region.
Driving the renewed interest is a surge in commodity prices that spells good news, particularly for key producers Indonesia and Malaysia, coupled with the sparse economic links between Southeast Asia and the warring nations of Russia and Ukraine.
Supply disruptions caused by the conflict and subsequent Western sanctions have sent commodities prices soaring, with Brent crude, coal, palm oil and nickel hitting multi-year highs.
"Commodity prices are now likely to be higher for longer," said Jerry Goh, an Asian equities investment manager at fund house abrdn.
"We expect Malaysia and Indonesia to continue enjoying trade surpluses, which should bolster government revenues and encourage consumer spending."
Foreign flows into stocks in Indonesia, Southeast Asia's biggest economy, rose to $1.2 billion in February, Reuters data shows, the most since April 2019, following net outflows for much of 2019 and 2020 and only small inflows in 2021.
February's flows into Thai stocks were their highest since at least 2008 and the Philippines also saw inflows. In contrast, India and Taiwan, investor darlings in 2021, both saw outflows in February.
Indonesia is the world's top exporter of palm oil, thermal coal and a major producer of nickel, copper and refined tin, while Malaysia is the world's second largest producer and exporter of palm.
"As economic activity resumes in these two markets, this should also support a recovery in domestic earnings," Goh added.
Defensive qualities in the ASEAN grouping of nations could exert themselves in the coming months, as the Russia-Ukraine conflict escalates, said Kenneth Tang, a senior portfolio manager for Asian equities at Nikko Asset Management.
MSCI's broadest index of world shares has fallen 11% year-to-date, but Indonesia, with year-to-date gains of nearly 5%, is the best performing Asian market after the Jakarta Composite Index hit a record last week.
Coal producers Adaro Energy and Bayan Resources have soared to record highs.
Stocks in neighbouring Malaysia hit a 10-month high last week, after February's jump of 6.3%.
Thus Indonesia and Malaysia offer a "perfect stagflation hedge" as the the only two net commodity exporters in Asia ex-Japan, Morgan Stanley economists said.