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Ampol Limited's (ASX:ALD) dividend is being reduced from last year's payment covering the same period to A$0.05 on the 3rd of April. This payment takes the dividend yield to 2.5%, which only provides a modest boost to overall returns.
See our latest analysis for Ampol
Ampol's Projected Earnings Seem Likely To Cover Future Distributions
If it is predictable over a long period, even low dividend yields can be attractive. Based on the last payment, the company wasn't making enough to cover what it was paying to shareholders. Without profits and cash flows increasing, it would be difficult for the company to continue paying the dividend at this level.
Analysts expect a massive rise in earnings per share in the next year. If recent patterns in the dividend continue, we could see the payout ratio reaching 27% which is fairly sustainable.
Dividend Volatility
While the company has been paying a dividend for a long time, it has cut the dividend at least once in the last 10 years. The annual payment during the last 10 years was A$0.37 in 2015, and the most recent fiscal year payment was A$0.65. This implies that the company grew its distributions at a yearly rate of about 5.8% over that duration. It's good to see the dividend growing at a decent rate, but the dividend has been cut at least once in the past. Ampol might have put its house in order since then, but we remain cautious.
Dividend Growth Potential Is Shaky
Growing earnings per share could be a mitigating factor when considering the past fluctuations in the dividend. Earnings per share has been sinking by 19% over the last five years. Dividend payments are likely to come under some pressure unless EPS can pull out of the nosedive it is in. However, the next year is actually looking up, with earnings set to rise. We would just wait until it becomes a pattern before getting too excited.
Ampol's Dividend Doesn't Look Great
In summary, it's not great to see that the dividend is being cut, but it is probably understandable given that the current payment level was quite high. The company isn't making enough to be paying as much as it is, and the other factors don't look particularly promising either. Overall, this doesn't get us very excited from an income standpoint.
Investors generally tend to favour companies with a consistent, stable dividend policy as opposed to those operating an irregular one. Still, investors need to consider a host of other factors, apart from dividend payments, when analysing a company. To that end, Ampol has 3 warning signs (and 2 which are concerning) we think you should know about. If you are a dividend investor, you might also want to look at our curated list of high yield dividend stocks.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.