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It's been a pretty great week for Amplitude, Inc. (NASDAQ:AMPL) shareholders, with its shares surging 13% to US$10.64 in the week since its latest first-quarter results. The results look positive overall; while revenues of US$80m were in line with analyst predictions, statutory losses were 8.1% smaller than expected, with Amplitude losing US$0.17 per share. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. With this in mind, we've gathered the latest statutory forecasts to see what the analysts are expecting for next year.
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Taking into account the latest results, the current consensus from Amplitude's eleven analysts is for revenues of US$331.0m in 2025. This would reflect a credible 8.0% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Losses are predicted to fall substantially, shrinking 22% to US$0.57. Before this earnings announcement, the analysts had been modelling revenues of US$326.7m and losses of US$0.63 per share in 2025. So there seems to have been a moderate uplift in analyst sentiment with the latest consensus release, given the upgrade to loss per share forecasts for this year.
Check out our latest analysis for Amplitude
There's been no major changes to the consensus price target of US$13.10, suggesting that reduced loss estimates are not enough to have a long-term positive impact on the stock's valuation. There's another way to think about price targets though, and that's to look at the range of price targets put forward by analysts, because a wide range of estimates could suggest a diverse view on possible outcomes for the business. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Amplitude at US$16.00 per share, while the most bearish prices it at US$10.00. Analysts definitely have varying views on the business, but the spread of estimates is not wide enough in our view to suggest that extreme outcomes could await Amplitude shareholders.
Of course, another way to look at these forecasts is to place them into context against the industry itself. It's pretty clear that there is an expectation that Amplitude's revenue growth will slow down substantially, with revenues to the end of 2025 expected to display 11% growth on an annualised basis. This is compared to a historical growth rate of 14% over the past three years. Compare this to the 404 other companies in this industry with analyst coverage, which are forecast to grow their revenue at 12% per year. Factoring in the forecast slowdown in growth, it looks like Amplitude is forecast to grow at about the same rate as the wider industry.