American Electric Power (AEP) Up 4.1% Since Earnings Report: Can It Continue?

It has been about a month since the last earnings report for American Electric Power Company, Inc. AEP. Shares have added about 4.1% in that time frame, outperforming the market.

Will the recent positive trend continue leading up to the stock's next earnings release, or is it due for a pullback? Before we dive into how investors and analysts have reacted as of late, let's take a quick look at its most recent earnings report in order to get a better handle on the important drivers.

American Electric Misses Q1 Earnings, Keeps EPS View

American Electric Power reported first-quarter 2017 operating earnings of $0.96 per share, missing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $0.97 by 1%.

Earnings also dropped 5.9% year over year owing to warmer-than-normal winter weather conditions.

Total Revenue

American Electric’s first-quarter revenues of $3,936.2 million fell 2.7% from $4,044.9 million in the year-ago quarter. The reported figure however exceeded the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $3,874.4 million.

Quarterly Highlights

Operating expenses incurred in the reported quarter were $1,646.3 million, compared with $1,745 million a year ago.

Operating income in first-quarter 2017 was $884.7 million, down 1% from $892.9 million a year ago.

Segmental Performance

Vertically Integrated Utility Operations: Operating earnings in the quarter declined to $219.5 million from $277.6 million a year ago.

Transmission & Distribution Utilities: Operating earnings were $119.1 million in the quarter, up from $107.5 million a year ago.

AEP Transmission Holdco: This segment generated an operating income of $71.8 million, up from $43.9 million recorded in the first quarter of 2016.

Generation and Marketing: Operating earnings were $68.3 million, down from $70.7 million in the first quarter of 2016.

Financial Update

As of Mar 31, 2017, American Electric had $175 million in cash and cash equivalents, compared with $210.5 million as of Dec 31, 2016.

Long-term debt was $19.24 billion as of Mar 31, 2017, compared with $20.26 billion as of Dec 31, 2016.

Cash flow from operations was $806.8 million in the first quarter of 2017, compared with $799.9 million in the prior year quarter.

Guidance

American Electric reaffirmed its 2017 operating earnings guidance at the range of $3.55–$3.75.

How Have Estimates Been Moving Since Then?

Following the release, investors have witnessed a downward trend in fresh estimates. There has been no revision higher for the current quarter compared to one lower.

American Electric Power Company, Inc. Price and Consensus