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It's been a mediocre week for Alvotech (NASDAQ:ALVO) shareholders, with the stock dropping 17% to US$9.55 in the week since its latest yearly results. The results don't look great, especially considering that statutory losses grew 65% toUS$0.87 per share. Revenues of US$492m did beat expectations by 8.3%, but it looks like a bit of a cold comfort. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. So we gathered the latest post-earnings forecasts to see what estimates suggest is in store for next year.
Taking into account the latest results, the current consensus from Alvotech's four analysts is for revenues of US$599.6m in 2025. This would reflect a sizeable 22% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Earnings are expected to improve, with Alvotech forecast to report a statutory profit of US$0.18 per share. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of US$612.1m and earnings per share (EPS) of US$0.15 in 2025. Although the analysts have lowered their revenue forecasts, they've also made a sizeable expansion in their earnings per share estimates, which implies there's been something of an uptick in sentiment following the latest results.
See our latest analysis for Alvotech
There's been a 6.3% lift in the price target to US$18.50, with the analysts signalling that the higher earnings forecasts are more relevant to the business than the weaker revenue estimates. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Alvotech at US$28.00 per share, while the most bearish prices it at US$14.00. Note the wide gap in analyst price targets? This implies to us that there is a fairly broad range of possible scenarios for the underlying business.
Another way we can view these estimates is in the context of the bigger picture, such as how the forecasts stack up against past performance, and whether forecasts are more or less bullish relative to other companies in the industry. We would highlight that Alvotech's revenue growth is expected to slow, with the forecast 22% annualised growth rate until the end of 2025 being well below the historical 45% p.a. growth over the last five years. Compare this to the 565 other companies in this industry with analyst coverage, which are forecast to grow their revenue at 20% per year. Factoring in the forecast slowdown in growth, it looks like Alvotech is forecast to grow at about the same rate as the wider industry.