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Today is shaping up negative for Alpha Metallurgical Resources, Inc. (NYSE:AMR) shareholders, with the analysts delivering a substantial negative revision to this year's forecasts. Both revenue and earnings per share (EPS) estimates were cut sharply as analysts factored in the latest outlook for the business, concluding that they were too optimistic previously.
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Following the latest downgrade, the current consensus, from the twin analysts covering Alpha Metallurgical Resources, is for revenues of US$2.2b in 2025, which would reflect a not inconsiderable 14% reduction in Alpha Metallurgical Resources' sales over the past 12 months. After this downgrade, the company is anticipated to report a loss of US$5.36 in 2025, a sharp decline from a profit over the last year. Before this latest update, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of US$2.6b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$10.23 in 2025. So we can see that the consensus has become notably more bearish on Alpha Metallurgical Resources' outlook with these numbers, making a measurable cut to this year's revenue estimates. Furthermore, they expect the business to be loss-making this year, compared to their previous forecasts of a profit.
See our latest analysis for Alpha Metallurgical Resources
These estimates are interesting, but it can be useful to paint some more broad strokes when seeing how forecasts compare, both to the Alpha Metallurgical Resources' past performance and to peers in the same industry. We would highlight that sales are expected to reverse, with a forecast 19% annualised revenue decline to the end of 2025. That is a notable change from historical growth of 16% over the last five years. Compare this with our data, which suggests that other companies in the same industry are, in aggregate, expected to see their revenue grow 4.6% per year. It's pretty clear that Alpha Metallurgical Resources' revenues are expected to perform substantially worse than the wider industry.
The Bottom Line
The biggest low-light for us was that the forecasts for Alpha Metallurgical Resources dropped from profits to a loss this year. Unfortunately analysts also downgraded their revenue estimates, and industry data suggests that Alpha Metallurgical Resources' revenues are expected to grow slower than the wider market. Given the serious cut to this year's outlook, it's clear that analysts have turned more bearish on Alpha Metallurgical Resources, and we wouldn't blame shareholders for feeling a little more cautious themselves.