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Algoma Steel Group Inc. (NASDAQ:ASTL) will pay a dividend of CA$0.05 on the 27th of December. This means the annual payment will be 1.7% of the current stock price, which is lower than the industry average.
While the dividend yield is important for income investors, it is also important to consider any large share price moves, as this will generally outweigh any gains from distributions. Investors will be pleased to see that Algoma Steel Group's stock price has increased by 30% in the last 3 months, which is good for shareholders and can also explain a decrease in the dividend yield.
Check out our latest analysis for Algoma Steel Group
Estimates Indicate Algoma Steel Group's Dividend Coverage Likely To Improve
While yield is important, another factor to consider about a company's dividend is whether the current payout levels are feasible. Despite not generating a profit, Algoma Steel Group is still paying a dividend. Along with this, it is also not generating free cash flows, which raises concerns about the sustainability of the dividend.
The next year is set to see EPS grow by 160.1%. If the dividend continues along recent trends, we estimate the payout ratio will be 22%, which is in the range that makes us comfortable with the sustainability of the dividend.
Algoma Steel Group Is Still Building Its Track Record
The company has maintained a consistent dividend for a few years now, but we would like to see a longer track record before relying on it. The annual payment during the last 3 years was CA$0.249 in 2021, and the most recent fiscal year payment was CA$0.269. This implies that the company grew its distributions at a yearly rate of about 2.5% over that duration. Modest dividend growth is good to see, especially with the payments being relatively stable. However, the payment history is relatively short and we wouldn't want to rely on this dividend too much.
Dividend Growth Potential Is Shaky
Some investors will be chomping at the bit to buy some of the company's stock based on its dividend history. However, things aren't all that rosy. Over the past five years, it looks as though Algoma Steel Group's EPS has declined at around 19% a year. Such rapid declines definitely have the potential to constrain dividend payments if the trend continues into the future. Over the next year, however, earnings are actually predicted to rise, but we would still be cautious until a track record of earnings growth can be built.
We're Not Big Fans Of Algoma Steel Group's Dividend
Overall, this isn't a great candidate as an income investment, even though the dividend was stable this year. The company's earnings aren't high enough to be making such big distributions, and it isn't backed up by strong growth or consistency either. We don't think that this is a great candidate to be an income stock.