Alamos Gold Inc.'s (TSE:AGI) Stock Is Going Strong: Have Financials A Role To Play?

editorial-team@simplywallst.com (Simply Wall St)

Sun, May 12, 2024, 7:06 AM 4 min read

Alamos Gold's (TSE:AGI) stock is up by a considerable 32% over the past three months. Given that stock prices are usually aligned with a company's financial performance in the long-term, we decided to study its financial indicators more closely to see if they had a hand to play in the recent price move. Particularly, we will be paying attention to Alamos Gold's ROE today.

Return on Equity or ROE is a test of how effectively a company is growing its value and managing investors’ money. Put another way, it reveals the company's success at turning shareholder investments into profits.

View our latest analysis for Alamos Gold

How To Calculate Return On Equity?

The formula for return on equity is:

Return on Equity = Net Profit (from continuing operations) ÷ Shareholders' Equity

So, based on the above formula, the ROE for Alamos Gold is:

6.9% = US$204m ÷ US$3.0b (Based on the trailing twelve months to March 2024).

The 'return' refers to a company's earnings over the last year. That means that for every CA$1 worth of shareholders' equity, the company generated CA$0.07 in profit.

Why Is ROE Important For Earnings Growth?

Thus far, we have learned that ROE measures how efficiently a company is generating its profits. Based on how much of its profits the company chooses to reinvest or "retain", we are then able to evaluate a company's future ability to generate profits. Generally speaking, other things being equal, firms with a high return on equity and profit retention, have a higher growth rate than firms that don’t share these attributes.

Alamos Gold's Earnings Growth And 6.9% ROE

When you first look at it, Alamos Gold's ROE doesn't look that attractive. Next, when compared to the average industry ROE of 9.6%, the company's ROE leaves us feeling even less enthusiastic. Despite this, surprisingly, Alamos Gold saw an exceptional 31% net income growth over the past five years. Therefore, there could be other reasons behind this growth. Such as - high earnings retention or an efficient management in place.

We then performed a comparison between Alamos Gold's net income growth with the industry, which revealed that the company's growth is similar to the average industry growth of 29% in the same 5-year period.

past-earnings-growth — TSX:AGI Past Earnings Growth May 12th 2024

Earnings growth is a huge factor in stock valuation. What investors need to determine next is if the expected earnings growth, or the lack of it, is already built into the share price. Doing so will help them establish if the stock's future looks promising or ominous. Is AGI fairly valued? This infographic on the company's intrinsic value has everything you need to know.

Is Alamos Gold Using Its Retained Earnings Effectively?

Alamos Gold's three-year median payout ratio to shareholders is 19%, which is quite low. This implies that the company is retaining 81% of its profits. So it seems like the management is reinvesting profits heavily to grow its business and this reflects in its earnings growth number.

Besides, Alamos Gold has been paying dividends over a period of nine years. This shows that the company is committed to sharing profits with its shareholders. Existing analyst estimates suggest that the company's future payout ratio is expected to drop to 10.0% over the next three years. As a result, the expected drop in Alamos Gold's payout ratio explains the anticipated rise in the company's future ROE to 12%, over the same period.

Conclusion

On the whole, we do feel that Alamos Gold has some positive attributes. Even in spite of the low rate of return, the company has posted impressive earnings growth as a result of reinvesting heavily into its business. That being so, a study of the latest analyst forecasts show that the company is expected to see a slowdown in its future earnings growth. Are these analysts expectations based on the broad expectations for the industry, or on the company's fundamentals? Click here to be taken to our analyst's forecasts page for the company.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.