Al-Naimi exit was about Saudi reform, not its oil policy: Analysts

Al-Naimi exit was about Saudi reform, not its oil policy: Analysts · CNBC

Don't expect Saudi Arabia 's new oil boss to bring big change to OPEC 's June meeting, analysts warned, after the energy power replaced its long-serving minister Ali al-Naimi on Saturday.

"Al-Naimi's removal is less a reflection on [his] policies, which really have carried the kingdom through two decades of highs and lows in the oil markets, than a reflection of the tough scope of the work ahead in Saudi Arabia" Emily Hawthorne, Middle East analyst at political consultancy Strafor, told CNBC's " The Rundown ".

In a far-reaching government shake-up, Saudi Arabia replaced al-Naimi , who had been oil minister since 1995, with Khalid al-Falih, the chairman of state-owned oil company Aramco.

The change came after a sustained decline in oil prices; oil prices have fallen as much as 70 percent since mid-2014 amid an energy supply surplus and a slowdown in global demand growth.

Saudi Arabia is one of the world's largest crude oil producer and the de facto leader of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC). The exit of the country's high-profile minister comes just ahead of the next OPEC meeting, scheduled for June 2.

The 13-member oil cartel has repeatedly refused to cut supply despite the slide in prices, as Saudi Arabia sticks to its strategy of leveraging its low-cost production to squeeze out higher-cost U.S. shale oil producers.

Saudi Arabia has also reportedly refused to sign up to a production freeze deal unless Iran , which has only recently returned to the oil market and is determined to built its market share, also signs up to the deal.

IHS vice chairman Dan Yergin told CNBC's " Squawk Box " on Monday that Saudi Arabia was unlikely to back down in June from this position.

"Al-Falih has said he will continue [Saudi Arabia's intention of allowing] the market determine the market and not have the old days of OPEC trying to manage the market," Yergin said.

On Sunday, al-Falih said he would maintain the country's "stable petroleum policies," according to a Reuters report.

It's also in Saudi's long-term interest to keep crude oil prices low now in order to limit demand shift to alternative fuels such as shale and, at the same time, spur economic change in the kingdom, Taurus Wealth Advisors executive, Rainer Michael Preiss, told CNBC's " Street Signs ".

"We remain committed to maintaining our role in international energy markets and strengthening our position as the world's most reliable supplier of energy," al-Falih said in a statement emailed to Reuters.