AJ Bell plc (LON:AJB) just released its latest yearly results and things are looking bullish. AJ Bell beat earnings, with revenues hitting UK£126m, ahead of expectations, and statutory earnings per share outperforming analyst reckonings by a solid 10%. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. We've gathered the most recent statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their earnings models, following these results.

View our latest analysis for AJ Bell

Taking into account the latest results, the consensus forecast from AJ Bell's six analysts is for revenues of UK£130.0m in 2021, which would reflect an okay 3.3% improvement in sales compared to the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are expected to descend 12% to UK£0.083 in the same period. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of UK£124.0m and earnings per share (EPS) of UK£0.083 in 2021. There doesn't appear to have been a major change in sentiment following the results, other than the slight bump in revenue estimates.

Even though revenue forecasts increased, there was no change to the consensus price target of UK£3.51, suggesting the analysts are focused on earnings as the driver of value creation. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. Currently, the most bullish analyst values AJ Bell at UK£4.74 per share, while the most bearish prices it at UK£2.30. This is a fairly broad spread of estimates, suggesting that analysts are forecasting a wide range of possible outcomes for the business.

Looking at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can make sense of these forecasts is to see how they measure up against both past performance and industry growth estimates. It's pretty clear that there is an expectation that AJ Bell's revenue growth will slow down substantially, with revenues next year expected to grow 3.3%, compared to a historical growth rate of 16% over the past five years. Compare this against other companies (with analyst forecasts) in the industry, which are in aggregate expected to see revenue growth of 5.6% next year. So it's pretty clear that, while revenue growth is expected to slow down, the wider industry is also expected to grow faster than AJ Bell.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that there's been no major change in sentiment, with the analysts reconfirming that the business is performing in line with their previous earnings per share estimates. Fortunately, they also upgraded their revenue estimates, although our data indicates sales are expected to perform worse than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for AJ Bell going out to 2025, and you can see them free on our platform here..

Don't forget that there may still be risks. For instance, we've identified 1 warning sign for AJ Bell that you should be aware of.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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