Air cargo demand showed continued strength in November as the holiday season kicked into gear, and airlines benefited from rising e-commerce demand in the U.S. and Europe amid ongoing capacity limits in ocean freight stemming from the Red Sea crisis.
Total demand, measured in cargo tonne-kilometers (CTKs), rose by 8.2 percent compared to the year prior, according to monthly data from the International Air Transport Association (IATA). This marked the 16th consecutive month of demand growth for air cargo. On a seasonally adjusted basis, demand contracted by 0.5 percent month over month.
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International operations grew 9.5 percent across all trade lanes. The Asia-to-North America route, the largest market based on CTK volumes, saw the highest air cargo demand increase at 13 percent.
2024 was unquestionably a hot year for air cargo on the whole, with the first eight months seeing double-digit growth in demand.
For the full year, the IATA said last month that it expected air cargo demand to increase by 11.8 percent over 2023 totals to 275 billion CTKs worldwide. This represents a rebound following two consecutive years of declining air cargo volumes as the industry adjusted after the Covid-19 pandemic peak.
With such big shoes to fill, 2025 is unlikely to have the excessive CTK growth of 2024. But the IATA still projects healthy growth for the industry even as demand tapers off.
CTK totals are expected to jump another 6 percent in 2025 to 291 billion, while total cargo volumes transported are expected to reach 72.5 million metric tons this year, a 5.8 percent increase from 2024.
“All things considered we are looking to close out 2024 air cargo performance on a profitable note,” said Willie Walsh, IATA’s director general, in a statement. “While this strong performance is very likely to extend into 2025, there are some downside risks that must be carefully watched. These include inflation, geopolitical uncertainties and trade tensions.”
Global air cargo capacity, measured in available CTKs (ACTKs), grew by 4.6 percent year over year in November. On a monthly, seasonally adjusted basis, capacity declined by 0.6 percent for the third straight month.
Even as fuel costs plummeted substantially from 2023 levels, at 22 percent, tight market conditions have enabled air cargo rates to accelerate at a 7.8 percent pace from the year prior.