(Bloomberg) -- China’s billion-ton steel industry is edging toward its biggest shake-up in a decade, with speculation growing that Beijing will order plant closures in response to a construction slowdown at home and a wave of protectionism overseas.
Most Read from Bloomberg
-
Cuts to Section 8 Housing Assistance Loom Amid HUD Uncertainty
-
The Trump Administration Takes Aim at Transportation Research
-
Shelters Await Billions in Federal Money for Homelessness Providers
-
NYC’s Congestion Pricing Pulls In $48.6 Million in First Month
-
NYC Office Buildings See Resurgence as Investors Pile Into Bonds
The world’s biggest steel market has been abuzz this week with speculation that Beijing will mandate capacity cuts of 50 million tons — possibly as early as a key political gathering in the capital next week. An unverified screenshot implying that a plan had been approved went viral among steel-watchers on China’s ubiquitious WeChat messaging app, stoking gains for steel prices and steelmakers.
No plans have been announced, but the widespread speculation reflect broad recognition that the struggling steel industry needs a fresh overhaul, nearly a decade after President Xi Jinping launched his first supply-side reforms. The country’s chronic property crisis has sent domestic steel demand falling for the past four years.
The international environment has also turned more treacherous, as nations move to block China’s export flood that topped 110 million tons of steel last year and encouraged US President Donald Trump’s tough line on metals tariffs. That’s piling pressure on China’s leaders.
“We understand the policy stance on steel has changed at the Politburo level and more actions will follow to reduce supply,” Jack Shang, a Citigroup Inc. analyst wrote in a research note. “It’s time for a supply reform 2.0,” he wrote. The bank predicts a supply cut of around 50 million tons.
More Severe
China dominates global steel production, and its exports have fueled bouts of trade tensions over the past two decades. A previous round of government-backed reforms were unveiled by Xi in 2016, in the wake of a previous demand crash and export surge. During that round of reforms, 150 million tons of capacity cuts were made over three years.
Trump argued that his blanket 25% tariffs against steel imports were necessary to protect American industry against China-fueled oversupply in the rest of the world. South Korea and Vietnam — both crucial markets — slapped tariffs on Chinese steel, while India is mulling tougher measures and the European Union is revamping its safeguards.