Automation was already expected to wipe out millions of jobs. The pandemic has accelerated their demise.
Nearly 9 million workers switched occupations during the health crisis – from 2019 to 2022 – 50% more than in the prior three years, according to a new study by McKinsey Global Institute.
Most left low-wage jobs in food services, customer service, office support and production. Meanwhile, high-wage positions grew in fields such as science, technology, health care, business, legal and management, the report says.
By 2030, another 12 million workers are likely to change jobs as low-wage positions continue to dwindle and higher-paying professional roles flourish. All told, that would amount to 25% more occupational shifts in the 2020s than McKinsey predicted just two years ago.
"This is an opportunity to help drive upwards economic mobility if we can solve mismatches and connect workers with the training they need for these roles," says Saurabh Sanghvi, a McKinsey partner and coauthor of the report.
Generative artificial intelligence is hastening the effects of automation but will likely alter the nature of professional jobs rather than eliminate them, at least in the short term, the study says.
The far-reaching transformation of the labor market is likely to require a big ramp-up in training programs and new hiring practices, the study says.
What is the effect of COVID-19 on the workforce?
COVID has driven the faster timetable. Many customer-facing jobs, such as in food service and office support, are going away as Americans shift purchases to e-commerce and fewer workers come to offices. Such industries will account for 10 million of the 12 million occupational changes.
By 2030, employment is projected to fall by 1.6 million for clerks, 830,000 for retail associates, 710,000 for administrative assistants and 630,000 for cashiers. All those jobs involve repetitive tasks that could be replaced by automation, the report says.
So far, openings for such low-wage jobs have actually increased recently but that’s because many workers in those fields are quitting and fewer are taking positions.
Meanwhile, managerial and professional jobs paying more than $57,000 a year have grown by about 3.5 million since the pandemic.
But it doesn’t necessarily mean workers in lower-paying fields are climbing to higher levels.
“It is unclear how many higher-paying roles were filled by people who moved up and how many were filled by new entrants to the labor force,” the study says.
What is generative AI?
Generative AI is turbocharging the effects of automation. While AI analyzes data to make forecasts, generative AI can identify patterns to create new content, such as software code, products, images, video and conversations, in the case of ChatGPT.