Are AGL Energy Limited's (ASX:AGL) Fundamentals Good Enough to Warrant Buying Given The Stock's Recent Weakness?

editorial-team@simplywallst.com (Simply Wall St)

Thu, Mar 27, 2025, 9:36 PM 4 min read

It is hard to get excited after looking at AGL Energy's (ASX:AGL) recent performance, when its stock has declined 4.3% over the past three months. But if you pay close attention, you might find that its key financial indicators look quite decent, which could mean that the stock could potentially rise in the long-term given how markets usually reward more resilient long-term fundamentals. Specifically, we decided to study AGL Energy's ROE in this article.

Return on equity or ROE is an important factor to be considered by a shareholder because it tells them how effectively their capital is being reinvested. In short, ROE shows the profit each dollar generates with respect to its shareholder investments.

How Do You Calculate Return On Equity?

The formula for return on equity is:

Return on Equity = Net Profit (from continuing operations) ÷ Shareholders' Equity

So, based on the above formula, the ROE for AGL Energy is:

4.3% = AU$229m ÷ AU$5.3b (Based on the trailing twelve months to December 2024).

The 'return' is the income the business earned over the last year. That means that for every A$1 worth of shareholders' equity, the company generated A$0.04 in profit.

Check out our latest analysis for AGL Energy

Why Is ROE Important For Earnings Growth?

So far, we've learned that ROE is a measure of a company's profitability. Depending on how much of these profits the company reinvests or "retains", and how effectively it does so, we are then able to assess a company’s earnings growth potential. Assuming everything else remains unchanged, the higher the ROE and profit retention, the higher the growth rate of a company compared to companies that don't necessarily bear these characteristics.

AGL Energy's Earnings Growth And 4.3% ROE

It is quite clear that AGL Energy's ROE is rather low. Not just that, even compared to the industry average of 9.4%, the company's ROE is entirely unremarkable. Although, we can see that AGL Energy saw a modest net income growth of 5.5% over the past five years. Therefore, the growth in earnings could probably have been caused by other variables. For example, it is possible that the company's management has made some good strategic decisions, or that the company has a low payout ratio.

We then compared AGL Energy's net income growth with the industry and found that the company's growth figure is lower than the average industry growth rate of 7.8% in the same 5-year period, which is a bit concerning.

past-earnings-growth — ASX:AGL Past Earnings Growth March 28th 2025

The basis for attaching value to a company is, to a great extent, tied to its earnings growth. The investor should try to establish if the expected growth or decline in earnings, whichever the case may be, is priced in. This then helps them determine if the stock is placed for a bright or bleak future. Has the market priced in the future outlook for AGL? You can find out in our latest intrinsic value infographic research report.

Is AGL Energy Efficiently Re-investing Its Profits?

AGL Energy has a healthy combination of a moderate three-year median payout ratio of 41% (or a retention ratio of 59%) and a respectable amount of growth in earnings as we saw above, meaning that the company has been making efficient use of its profits.

Moreover, AGL Energy is determined to keep sharing its profits with shareholders which we infer from its long history of paying a dividend for at least ten years. Upon studying the latest analysts' consensus data, we found that the company's future payout ratio is expected to rise to 54% over the next three years. Still, forecasts suggest that AGL Energy's future ROE will rise to 11% even though the the company's payout ratio is expected to rise. We presume that there could some other characteristics of the business that could be driving the anticipated growth in the company's ROE.

Summary

On the whole, we do feel that AGL Energy has some positive attributes. Specifically, its fairly high earnings growth number, which no doubt was backed by the company's high earnings retention. Still, the low ROE means that all that reinvestment is not reaping a lot of benefit to the investors. That being so, the latest analyst forecasts show that the company will continue to see an expansion in its earnings. Are these analysts expectations based on the broad expectations for the industry, or on the company's fundamentals? Click here to be taken to our analyst's forecasts page for the company.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.