We recently published a list of 8 Worst Small Cap Agriculture Stocks to Buy. In this article, we are going to take a look at where AGCO Corporation (NYSE:AGCO) stands against other worst small cap agriculture stocks to buy.
To supply the world’s demands for food and raw materials, the agriculture sector—which includes growing crops and rearing livestock—is essential to global sustainability. According to data from the Business Research Company, the industry is predicted to expand at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 7.9% from $14.36 trillion in 2024 to $15.50 trillion in 2025, demonstrating its continued importance as a pillar of the global economy. Despite its value, the industry has experienced structural changes throughout the years due to resource management, changing global demand, and technological improvements.
However, fears concerning stunted productivity and sustainability have appeared in recent years, creating obstacles for long-term growth. A significant shift in the sector has been the growing contribution of the Global South—Africa, Asia, and Latin America—which has accounted for 73% of world agricultural output by 2020. McKinsey & Company predicts that as these rising markets modernize their agricultural processes, their proportion of production will grow even more. This change has been fueled by advances in crop science, irrigation techniques, and mechanization, which have enabled larger yields with the same land resources. Furthermore, reducing inflation in the United States around the end of 2024 has helped reduce input costs, notably in energy, resulting in higher margins for agricultural producers.
Despite these encouraging signs, the industry’s efficiency, as measured by Total Factor Productivity (TFP), has slowed. The global TFP growth rate decreased from 1.6% in the early 2000s to 0.9% during the past decade. With food consumption expected to increase by 60% by 2050, sluggish productivity raises concerns about future food security, price increases, and increased environmental constraints. Likewise, The Farm Products sector has experienced negative year-to-date and one-year returns. In contrast, global food commodity prices rose in February 2025, driven by rising sugar, dairy, and vegetable oil costs.
To address these difficulties, the sector is focusing on sustainability-driven solutions, notably connected agriculture. This entails the use of advanced technologies to improve, manage, and regulate farming operations. Advances in digital technologies have made it feasible to collect and use massive amounts of data at low cost, hence increasing crop yields while reducing resource consumption, such as water, fertilizers, and seeds. According to Fortune Business Insights, the global connected agricultural market was valued at $1.84 billion in 2018 and is expected to grow to $7.22 billion by 2026, with a CAGR of 19.1% over the forecast period. In 2018, North America dominated the global market, accounting for a 34.06% share in 2018.
Given these characteristics, maintaining agricultural expansion would necessitate major investment in next-generation farming technologies and sustainable practices. According to McKinsey & Company, advances in agricultural technology have the potential to deliver a 25% rise in global output over the next decade while improving efficiency and lowering environmental impact. Meanwhile, the sector remains a crucial engine of the US economy, accounting for more than $1.5 trillion in GDP in 2023, or 5.5% of economic output.
Agriculture is the foundation of global economic stability, supporting billions of people globally. However, despite its central role, not all stocks in the industry have performed well.
Our Methodology
For this article, we started by using Finviz screeners to identify stocks in the agricultural inputs and farm products industries. From this expanded list, we chose companies with strong market capitalization. Next, we looked at how many hedge funds were invested in these companies because we believe that stocks with a high level of hedge fund interest do well. Finally, we determined the short percentage of float for each firm, which represents the level of negative sentiment or short interest in the stock. The companies were then sorted in ascending order according to their short proportion of float.
Why are we interested in the stocks that hedge funds pile into? The reason is simple: our research has shown that we can outperform the market by imitating the top stock picks of the best hedge funds. Our quarterly newsletter’s strategy selects 14 small-cap and large-cap stocks every quarter and has returned 373.4% since May 2014, beating its benchmark by 218 percentage points (see more details here).
Is AGCO Corporation (AGCO) the Worst Small Cap Agriculture Stock to Buy?
A farmer surrounded by a field of crops, his tractor parked in the background.
AGCO Corporation (NYSE:AGCO) is a global manufacturer and distributor of agricultural equipment, including tractors, grain storage solutions, harvesting equipment, and precision agriculture technologies. The company operates in several segments, offering machinery for large-scale farming, specialist agriculture, and livestock operations.
AGCO Corporation (NYSE:AGCO) reported a 24% loss in sales for the fourth quarter that ended December 31, 2024, compared to the fourth quarter of 2023, while revenue for the entire year of 2024 fell 19% year-on-year. The adjusted operating margin was 8.9% for the year, with adjusted EPS falling to $7.50. North American operating income fell by about $77 million, while operating margins shrank by 830 basis points. Furthermore, the company experienced pricing pressure, with a 1% price decrease in Q4, and generated $297 million in free cash flow, roughly $288 million less than in 2023. AGCO also recorded a $350 million goodwill impairment for its PTx Trimble joint venture, which impacted financials.
Despite industry constraints, AGCO Corporation (NYSE:AGCO) made strategic actions, such as divesting its Grain & Protein division and launching its TTX precision technology brand. It increased its PTx Trimble dealer network to over 1,000 while maintaining collaborations with more than 100 OEMs. The company also continued to streamline dealer inventory, whereas surplus stock remained a concern going into 2025.
Looking ahead, AGCO Corporation (NYSE:AGCO) forecasts Q1 2025 to be its lowest quarter, with sales expected to fall by about 32% year-on-year. Production reduction remains a top priority, with output expected to fall 35-40% from Q1 2024 levels. Furthermore, the company faces increasing challenges from a higher projected tax rate of 35-38% and foreign currency opposition, which is likely to cut revenues by $300 million. These hurdles, combined with diminishing profitability and continuing inventory issues, have encouraged short-selling activity, putting it among the worst agriculture stocks.
Overall, AGCO ranks 4th on our list of worst small cap agriculture stocks to buy. While we acknowledge the potential of AGCO, our conviction lies in the belief that AI stocks hold greater promise for delivering higher returns, and doing so within a shorter time frame. There is an AI stock that went up since the beginning of 2025, while popular AI stocks lost around 25%. If you are looking for an AI stock that is more promising than AGCO but that trades at less than 5 times its earnings, check out our report about this cheapest AI stock.
