Is Aflac Incorporated's (NYSE:AFL) Recent Performance Tethered To Its Attractive Financial Prospects?

editorial-team@simplywallst.com (Simply Wall St)

Fri, Apr 25, 2025, 7:00 AM 3 min read

Most readers would already know that Aflac's (NYSE:AFL) stock increased by 4.0% over the past three months. Since the market usually pay for a company’s long-term financial health, we decided to study the company’s fundamentals to see if they could be influencing the market. Specifically, we decided to study Aflac's ROE in this article.

Return on equity or ROE is a key measure used to assess how efficiently a company's management is utilizing the company's capital. Put another way, it reveals the company's success at turning shareholder investments into profits.

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How Is ROE Calculated?

The formula for ROE is:

Return on Equity = Net Profit (from continuing operations) ÷ Shareholders' Equity

So, based on the above formula, the ROE for Aflac is:

21% = US$5.4b ÷ US$26b (Based on the trailing twelve months to December 2024).

The 'return' refers to a company's earnings over the last year. So, this means that for every $1 of its shareholder's investments, the company generates a profit of $0.21.

See our latest analysis for Aflac

What Is The Relationship Between ROE And Earnings Growth?

So far, we've learned that ROE is a measure of a company's profitability. We now need to evaluate how much profit the company reinvests or "retains" for future growth which then gives us an idea about the growth potential of the company. Assuming everything else remains unchanged, the higher the ROE and profit retention, the higher the growth rate of a company compared to companies that don't necessarily bear these characteristics.

Aflac's Earnings Growth And 21% ROE

To start with, Aflac's ROE looks acceptable. Especially when compared to the industry average of 14% the company's ROE looks pretty impressive. This probably laid the ground for Aflac's moderate 5.5% net income growth seen over the past five years.

Next, on comparing with the industry net income growth, we found that Aflac's reported growth was lower than the industry growth of 12% over the last few years, which is not something we like to see.

past-earnings-growth — NYSE:AFL Past Earnings Growth April 25th 2025

The basis for attaching value to a company is, to a great extent, tied to its earnings growth. It’s important for an investor to know whether the market has priced in the company's expected earnings growth (or decline). By doing so, they will have an idea if the stock is headed into clear blue waters or if swampy waters await. What is AFL worth today? The intrinsic value infographic in our free research report helps visualize whether AFL is currently mispriced by the market.

Is Aflac Efficiently Re-investing Its Profits?

Aflac's three-year median payout ratio to shareholders is 21% (implying that it retains 79% of its income), which is on the lower side, so it seems like the management is reinvesting profits heavily to grow its business.

Besides, Aflac has been paying dividends for at least ten years or more. This shows that the company is committed to sharing profits with its shareholders. Our latest analyst data shows that the future payout ratio of the company is expected to rise to 34% over the next three years. Therefore, the expected rise in the payout ratio explains why the company's ROE is expected to decline to 14% over the same period.

Summary

Overall, we are quite pleased with Aflac's performance. In particular, it's great to see that the company is investing heavily into its business and along with a high rate of return, that has resulted in a respectable growth in its earnings. With that said, on studying the latest analyst forecasts, we found that while the company has seen growth in its past earnings, analysts expect its future earnings to shrink. To know more about the company's future earnings growth forecasts take a look at this free report on analyst forecasts for the company to find out more.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.