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Aflac Gears Up for Q1 Earnings: Will AFL Quack or Crack?

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Insurance provider Aflac Incorporated AFL is set to report its first-quarter 2025 results on April 30, 2025, after the closing bell. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the to-be-reported quarter’s earnings is currently pegged at $1.68 per shareon revenues of $4.38 billion. (See the Zacks Earnings Calendar to stay ahead of market-making news.)

The first-quarter earnings estimate declined by a penny over the past 60 days. The bottom-line projection indicates year-over-year growth of 1.2%. However, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for quarterly revenues suggests a year-over-year decrease of 19.5%.

Zacks Investment Research
Zacks Investment Research

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For 2025, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for Aflac’s revenues is pegged at $17.62 billion, implying a fall of 1.23% year over year. Also, the consensus mark for 2025 EPS is pegged at $6.84, implying a 5.1% year-over-year decline.

Aflac beat earnings estimates in three of the past four quarters and missed once, with the average surprise being 10.9%. This is depicted in the figure below.

Aflac Incorporated Price and EPS Surprise

Aflac Incorporated Price and EPS Surprise
Aflac Incorporated Price and EPS Surprise

Aflac Incorporated price-eps-surprise | Aflac Incorporated Quote

Q1 Earnings Whispers for Aflac

Our proven model does not conclusively predict an earnings beat for the company this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat. That’s not the case here.

AFL has an Earnings ESP of -0.65% and a Zacks Rank #3. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

What’s Shaping Aflac’s Q1 Results?

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for first-quarter total net earned premiums indicates a 2.5% year-over-year decline. Also, the consensus mark for net investment income predicts a 6.3% decline from the year-ago period. These are likely to have resulted in revenue declines in the first quarter.

While the consensus mark signals a 2.7% increase in total adjusted revenues in Aflac U.S., due to higher premiums, the same for Aflac Japan predicts a 3% fall from the year-ago quarter.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for pre-tax adjusted earnings from Aflac U.S. indicates a 2.3% year-over-year fall. Similarly, Aflac Japan is likely to have witnessed a 5.5% decline in pre-tax adjusted earnings.

The negatives are likely to have been partly offset by significantly improved pre-tax adjusted earnings figures from Corporate and other. Increasing efficiency and lower expenses are likely to have positioned the AFL’s bottom line for a year-over-year increase.