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It's been a mediocre week for The AES Corporation (NYSE:AES) shareholders, with the stock dropping 14% to US$14.71 in the week since its latest third-quarter results. Revenues came in 5.0% below expectations, at US$3.3b. Statutory earnings per share were relatively better off, with a per-share profit of US$0.35 being roughly in line with analyst estimates. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. We thought readers would find it interesting to see the analysts latest (statutory) post-earnings forecasts for next year.
View our latest analysis for AES
Taking into account the latest results, the most recent consensus for AES from nine analysts is for revenues of US$13.4b in 2025. If met, it would imply a solid 9.3% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to soar 43% to US$2.07. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of US$13.4b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$2.07 in 2025. So it's pretty clear that, although the analysts have updated their estimates, there's been no major change in expectations for the business following the latest results.
There were no changes to revenue or earnings estimates or the price target of US$21.76, suggesting that the company has met expectations in its recent result. The consensus price target is just an average of individual analyst targets, so - it could be handy to see how wide the range of underlying estimates is. Currently, the most bullish analyst values AES at US$25.00 per share, while the most bearish prices it at US$16.00. This shows there is still a bit of diversity in estimates, but analysts don't appear to be totally split on the stock as though it might be a success or failure situation.
Taking a look at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can understand these forecasts is to see how they compare to both past performance and industry growth estimates. The period to the end of 2025 brings more of the same, according to the analysts, with revenue forecast to display 7.4% growth on an annualised basis. That is in line with its 6.4% annual growth over the past five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in a similar industry are forecast to see their revenues grow 9.9% per year. So although AES is expected to maintain its revenue growth rate, it's forecast to grow slower than the wider industry.