In This Article:
U.S. consumers are expected to spend a record $240.8 billion online during the November through December holiday 2024 season, representing an 8.4 percent gain from holiday 2023.
That’s according to Adobe’s online holiday sales forecast, released Wednesday. “That 8.4 percent is a nice acceleration over the 3.5 percent in 2022 and 4.9 percent in 2023,” Vivek Pandya, lead insight analyst at Adobe, told WWD. “Consumers are very responsive to discounts and value right now.” About 2.5 percent of the gain would be attributed to inflation.
More from WWD
-
DeepL White Paper Unveils AI's Role in Boosting Global Retail Conversion Rates
-
Millennial and Gen Z Consumers Are Making Their Own Holiday Shopping and Travel Traditions
Among the software giant’s predictions, U.S. retailers will be discounting just as heavily as last year, but will get a better response from America’s increasingly price-sensitive consumers than they did last year. It’s a conclusion based on Adobe data suggesting for every 1 percent decrease in price during Prime Day, President’s Day, Memorial Day and Labor Day promotions this year, demand increased by 1.025 percent compared to the year prior, driving an incremental $305 million in online spend. For holiday 2024, Adobe expects the strong consumer response to discounts will contribute an incremental $2 billion to $3 billion in online spend — a figure factored into the record $240.8 billion forecasted for e-commerce.
In other Adobe predictions:
-
The upcoming holiday season is expected to be the most mobile ever, with $128.1 billion seen being spent on mobile devices, representing 53.2 percent of the total $240.8 billion predicted online spend, and 12.8 percent more than holiday 2023. That’s because people are increasingly using their mobiles, online marketers are making it easier for consumers to find the goods they want and faster to complete the purchase, and more and more consumers are on social media apps where they can shop, Pandya explained.
-
More than half of online holiday 2024 spend is expected to be driven by electronics, apparel and furniture/bedding. Apparel will generate $43.9 billion online, up 5.8 percent from last holiday. “Inflation is easing on essential items which puts consumers in a better position with discretionary spending,” Pandya said.
-
Electronics will generate $55.1 billion online, up 8.5 percent year-over-year.
-
Furniture/bedding will generate $28.4 billion online, up 4.2 percent.
-
Groceries is expected to drive $20.8 billion online, up 8.8 percent, year-over-year.
-
Cosmetics are seen generating $10.3 billion online, up 7.3 percent. Toy sales are seen growing 5.8 percent online to $8.1 billion; sporting goods will hit $7.2 billion online, up 5.5 percent.