The footwear industry market share numbers for May are out, and they tell the story of the ongoing Adidas comeback in America.
According to data from retail researcher NPD Group, Nike’s share of the US athletic footwear market was 34.7% last month, a dip from 35.9% in May 2016. Jordan Brand, the Nike-owned basketball sneaker line, had 11.8% share, a dip from 14.8% in May 2016. Adidas? Its share nearly doubled year over year, from 6.3% in May 2016 to 11.3% in May 2017.
(In case you’re wondering the next four by market share, it goes: Skechers with 6.3%; New Balance with 3.7%; Nike-owned Converse with 3.6%; and Under Armour at 2.4%.)
What else happened in May? Nike’s overall sneaker sales dipped a couple percentage points. Under Armour’s sneaker sales dropped 19%. Adidas’s sneaker sales rose 74%.
And in April, Adidas hit a record-high 13% share of this market and came in at No. 2, topping Jordan Brand for the first time in years. (Why did Adidas tick down from April to May? Market fluctuates from month to month, and it’s a zero-sum game where one brand’s rise means a dip for others; you basically can’t fairly compare share from month to month, only year over year.)
To be sure, Nike is still the top sports apparel dog in America. It sells more shoes in the US than Adidas, plain and simple. (In 2016, Adidas had $3.6 billion in US revenue, a 24% gain; Nike did more than three times that much.) But after a bad run of declining market share in the US from 2011 to 2015, Adidas is now steadily eating away at Nike’s dominance. The three stripes is the hottest brand among sneakerheads, Nike has cooled off, and Under Armour is flailing.
It’s about casual sportswear
The biggest reason Adidas is on the rise is because of an industry trend that benefits the brand: casual sportswear. That refers to both apparel and sneakers, and Adidas has always been known for streetwear, or as the category is called these days, “athleisure.” It’s a trend many bemoan (including Under Armour CEO Kevin Plank), but a trend that hasn’t gone away.
In May, the top five “casual athletic” footwear brands (sporty shoes worn for everyday fashion) did not even include Nike. The top five by market share were Adidas at 23% (a gain of 209% over the same period last year), Skechers at 20% (a 39% bump), Converse at 12% (flat), Sperry at 4% and Keds at 2%.
The stock has responded. Adidas shares are up 22% in 2017 so far, while Under Armour shares are down by the same amount. Nike shares are flat.
There’s another factor at play in Adidas’s recent run: Kanye West.
Adidas first partnered with the rapper in 2014 on a Yeezy line of sneakers and apparel, and last year it extended him to an extensive long-term deal that involves brick-and-mortar shops and, undoubtedly, a lot more money. Many, many sneakerheads insist that West is single-handedly to thank for the Adidas comeback in the States. But NPD Group’s Matt Powell disagrees, and as he likes to point out (and argue about with West fans on Twitter), Adidas only ever releases Yeezy shoes in tiny supply, so there’s no sales data that directly proves West’s influence.