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The Progressive Corporation PGR is expected to report an improvement in its top and bottom lines when it reports first-quarter 2025 results on April 16, before the opening bell.
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The Zacks Consensus Estimate for PGR’s first-quarter revenues is pegged at $20.4 billion, indicating 19.3% growth from the year-ago reported figure.
The consensus estimate for earnings is pegged at $4.60 per share. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for PGR’s first-quarter earnings has moved up 7.7% in the past 30 days. The estimate suggests year-over-year growth of 23.3%.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Solid Earnings Surprise History
Progressive’s earnings beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate in each of the trailing four quarters, the average surprise being 18.49%. This is depicted in the following chart.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
What the Zacks Model Unveils for PGR
Our proven model predicts an earnings beat for Progressive this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the chances of an earnings beat.
You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they are reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.
Earnings ESP: PGR has an Earnings ESP of +4.31%. This is because the Most Accurate Estimate of $4.80 is pegged higher than the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $4.60.
The Progressive Corporation Price and EPS Surprise
The Progressive Corporation price-eps-surprise | The Progressive Corporation Quote
Zacks Rank: PGR carries a Zacks Rank #2. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.
Factors Likely to Shape Q1 Results
Revenues in the first quarter are likely to have benefited from improvement in premiums, and higher net investment income as well as fees and service revenues.
A compelling product portfolio, leadership position, strength in the Vehicle and Property businesses, healthy policies in force and solid retention are likely to have aided net premiums earned. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for net premiums earned is pegged at $19.2 billion.
The personal auto business is likely to have benefited from competitive product offerings and a strong market presence. Focusing on segmentation and prudent risk selection is likely to have aided policies in force. Both agency and direct auto channels are likely to have driven policy growth.
Net investment income is expected to have benefited from a higher invested asset base. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the metric is pegged at $795 million. However, the company is likely to have incurred pretax net realized losses on securities. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the metric is pegged at a loss of $19.3 million.
Higher loss and loss-adjustment expenses, policy acquisition costs and other underwriting expenses are likely to have raised expenses. The consensus mark for loss and loss-adjustment expense ratio is pegged at 65.
Despite catastrophe losses, prudent underwriting is likely to have aided improvement in the combined ratio. The consensus mark for combined ratio is pegged at 86.