A few Points on what I’m working on and thinking about today…

HISTORY OF LENDER AI

– But seriously, how close are we to a fully digital mortgage?

– This is the title of a presentation to about 800 people I’m doing with Fannie Mae and Blend tomorrow.

– The first automated mortgage approval software launched 26 years ago.

– But it was all paper income and asset docs being keyed in.

– And we know AI is only as good as the data going in.

– Then deregulation made the data going in even worse because there was no data going in!

– No income, no asset (aka NINAs) and stated income, stated asset (aka SISAs) were all the rage.

– There used to be raging debates about how a SISA was better than a NINA

– Because at least a SISA had income figures entered into the loan approval AI machines whereas a NINA had no income or asset figures even entered.

– This actually happened.

– Then so did the crisis when all those loans made without income/asset verification turned out to be bad.

– That and the fact that derivative securities created based off the supposed strength of those loans permeated the global financial system.

– Then came “Ability To Repay” re-regulation that required lenders to use income and asset documentation to approve loans.

– Imagine that!

– Then came this most recent 6 year era where direct connections to your your payroll provider, tax returns, and bank statements ensures data going into loan approval machines is correct.

– It’s almost been 30 years in all.

– And it’ll take a few more years before this is fully mainstream.

– So by the time a mortgage is fully digital, it will have taken the time it takes to pay off a mortgage.

– Your process will be easier (already is) and the the system will be safer because of it.

WHAT’S REVOLUTIONARY IN THE AGE OF HYPE?

– Domesticated Animals by Queens of The Stone Age is in heavy rotation because of this lyric:

– “A revolution is one spin round.”

– Been mulling this since everything is a revolution in this golden age of startup/disruption hype.

– We’re starting a revolution.

– Our software is revolutionary.

– Let’s revolutionize our industry.

– Yet this lyric reminds us what the dictionary says: a revolution is one rotation.

– So it all depends on the scale of your thinking.

– One turn of the earth?

– One time around the sun?

– 26 times around the sun, like the AI journey above?