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Shareholders in Acadia Healthcare Company, Inc. (NASDAQ:ACHC) had a terrible week, as shares crashed 24% to US$29.98 in the week since its latest annual results. Revenues were in line with forecasts, at US$3.2b, although statutory earnings per share came in 13% below what the analysts expected, at US$2.78 per share. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. With this in mind, we've gathered the latest statutory forecasts to see what the analysts are expecting for next year.
See our latest analysis for Acadia Healthcare Company
After the latest results, the eleven analysts covering Acadia Healthcare Company are now predicting revenues of US$3.38b in 2025. If met, this would reflect a reasonable 7.3% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to rise 3.5% to US$2.85. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of US$3.43b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$3.25 in 2025. So there's definitely been a decline in sentiment after the latest results, noting the substantial drop in new EPS forecasts.
The average price target fell 8.1% to US$56.38, with reduced earnings forecasts clearly tied to a lower valuation estimate. The consensus price target is just an average of individual analyst targets, so - it could be handy to see how wide the range of underlying estimates is. The most optimistic Acadia Healthcare Company analyst has a price target of US$75.00 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at US$35.00. This is a fairly broad spread of estimates, suggesting that analysts are forecasting a wide range of possible outcomes for the business.
Taking a look at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can understand these forecasts is to see how they compare to both past performance and industry growth estimates. It's pretty clear that there is an expectation that Acadia Healthcare Company's revenue growth will slow down substantially, with revenues to the end of 2025 expected to display 7.3% growth on an annualised basis. This is compared to a historical growth rate of 13% over the past five years. Juxtapose this against the other companies in the industry with analyst coverage, which are forecast to grow their revenues (in aggregate) 7.1% annually. Factoring in the forecast slowdown in growth, it looks like Acadia Healthcare Company is forecast to grow at about the same rate as the wider industry.