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Recent consumer sentiment data has been particularly grim.

Uncertainty around President Trump's tariff policy and its impacts has soured the consumer outlook for the economy, and the latest consumer confidence index reading hit its lowest level in more than four years during March, according to data released on Tuesday from the Conference Board.

But for now, the souring mood among consumers has only pushed economic forecasters to lower their expectations for growth. While recession risks have risen, it's far from a consensus call on Wall Street.

And while we may know what might make things turn the corner, its unpleasant corollary is just as important: what could make things worse.

Our Chart of the Week shows what that thing might be.

The decline in March consumer confidence was broad-based across income groups, with "the only exception being households earning more than $125,000 a year," the Conference Board noted. And it's a theme that's been showing up in other economic data points, most critically in the personal savings rate.

Most consumers don't feel good about the path forward, but high-income earners aren't panicking yet. This raises a key potential turning point for the economic narrative right now.

High-income consumers make up about half of US consumer spending. And if the big spenders are playing Atlas to the US economy right now, how those shoulders hold up is of paramount concern.

On the one hand, this could keep a lid on the potential impact of a weakening consumer, an economic firewall that staves off a recession.

But should the political uncertainty that's weighed on both consumer sentiment and the stock market keep pressuring stock prices lower, the odds of recession could be on the rise as the high-income demographic spending fails to hold up weakening economic activity.

According to Deutsche Bank senior US economist Brett Ryan, the big risk is how uncertainty affects asset prices. While this demographic is robust, "hitting their asset prices and hitting them meaningfully" is the kryptonite that could push that group into austerity mode. And with it, the economy onto the rocks.

"A 10% pullback in the stock market probably is not going to get the top 20% income cohort to really pull back on spending. A 20%-plus hit to equity prices, that's a different story," Ryan said. For what it's worth, a 20% pullback from recent all-time highs would put the S&P 500 (^GSPC) just above 4,900, or about 12% lower than it is today.