In this article, we'll list countries expected to be the most populated in 2030 and their population growth patterns. If you want to skip how the world's population trends are changing, read 10 Most Populated Countries in 2030.
Patterns in the World’s Population Growth
As we approach 2030, it is crucial to understand the dynamics of population growth. Estimates suggest that the world's population will reach 8.5 billion by 2030 and exceed 10 billion by 2050, a significant increase from 6 billion in 2000. But intriguingly, in 2000, the world's average fertility rate was 2.7 births per woman, exceeding the 2.1 births required to replace the existing population. By 2023, this rate has decreased to 2.3 births per woman and continues to decline, particularly in economically advanced countries.
An analysis of fertility rate patterns by region reveals that the rate is 1.6 births per woman in OECD countries, 2.3 in Asia, and 4.2 in Africa. This pattern suggests a greater population burden in economically disadvantaged countries, many of which are projected to be among the most populated in the world by 2050.
Since the developments in the healthcare sector have increased the population's average life expectancy from 64 years in 1990 to 73 years in 2023, it's important to note that a significant portion of the population will be elderly moving forward. According to the United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs (UN DESA), there were 761 million people aged 65 and older in 2021. The number is projected to reach 1.6 billion by 2050. In the next two decades, approximately one in six people will be 65 years or older, compared to the current ratio of 1 in 10.
The aging population will lead to increased demand for healthcare services and age-related support, straining public health systems and elevating healthcare spending. The labor market will face a shrinking workforce, potentially leading to labor shortages and increased pressure on younger generations to sustain economic productivity.
Family Planning and its Impact on Population Growth
The United Nations Population Fund estimates that nearly half of the global pregnancies are unintended, totaling approximately 121 million per year. The report also states that about 60% of these unintended pregnancies result in abortions. However, as 45% of abortions are considered risky, they contribute to 5-13% of maternal deaths annually.
Therefore, to manage the population burden in the most populated countries and protect women's health, there is a need for safer and more affordable contraceptive methods to be more accessible. Impressively, from 2000 to 2020, the number of women using contraceptives increased from 663 million to 851 million. Due to the prevalence of modern contraceptives, Precedence Research reports that the global contraceptive industry was valued at $16 billion in 2022 and is projected to reach $27.72 billion by 2032, growing at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 5.70%.
The World Health Organization (WHO) reported that in 2022, approximately 77.5% of women of reproductive age (15–49 years) globally had their family planning needs met using modern contraceptive methods. This figure represents a growth of 10 percentage points from 67% in 1990. Notably, the gradual increase can be attributed to the limited options for contraceptives and concerns regarding their side effects.
A PubMed study found that about 51% of women continued using oral contraceptives (OCPs) once they started, compared to 77% who preferred copper IUDs (intrauterine devices). Similarly, 84% of women in the study group continued with LNG-IUS (levonorgestrel intrauterine systems), while 85% maintained the use of contraceptive implants. These results indicate a trend that young women more consistently used longer-lasting methods like IUDs and implants as they were more effective in preventing pregnancy compared to birth control pills. In simpler terms, methods that do not require daily attention were more successful in regular usage and in preventing unwanted pregnancies.
Regarding the efficacy of these contraceptive methods in helping countries with the highest rates of population growth, the PubMed study reports that OCPs had a pooled estimated pregnancy rate. i.e., chances of getting pregnant when on a contraceptive of 11%. On the other hand, copper IUDs had a rate of 5%, LNG-IUS 1.6%, and implants 1.8%. These findings further reinforce that the most effective birth control methods are the long-term ones, although their side effects are a separate matter of discussion.
Modern Contraceptives and Their Impact
With growing populations exerting strain on resources, the need for effective and accessible contraceptive methods is more pressing than ever. This necessity is fundamentally linked to the empowerment and health of women, as easy access to contraception enables them to manage their reproductive health and reduce risks associated with unintended pregnancies.
Tel-Aviv-based Teva Pharmaceutical Industries Ltd (NYSE:TEVA) contributes to this need by producing a variety of pharmaceuticals, including women's healthcare products, oral contraceptives, and intrauterine devices. Teva Pharmaceutical Industries Ltd (NYSE:TEVA) owns Barr Pharmaceuticals, Inc., which in turn owns Duramed Pharmaceuticals, Inc., the maker of ParaGard T-380A. This 100% hormone-free copper-T IUD, around 99% effective, is the oldest FDA-approved copper IUD in the US. Notably, Teva Pharmaceutical Industries Ltd (NYSE:TEVA)'s ParaGard is the only copper contraceptive device available in the US and is well-regarded as it can prevent pregnancy for 10 years after insertion.
Similarly, Pfizer Inc. (NYSE:PFE) manufactures Depo-Provera Contraceptive Injection, administered every three months. The Depo injection by Pfizer Inc. (NYSE:PFE) contains the progestin hormone, which suppresses ovulation and is approximately 96% effective. Pfizer Inc. (NYSE:PFE)'s Depo offers a convenient birth control method, requiring only four injections a year, and is suitable for women who cannot use estrogen-based contraceptives.
Merck & Co., Inc. (NYSE:MRK) also leads in modern contraceptive solutions, manufacturing NuvaRing, a combined hormonal contraceptive vaginal ring. Moreover, Merck & Co., Inc. (NYSE:MRK) makes Implanon, a long-acting reversible hormonal birth control implant. Merck & Co., Inc. (NYSE:MRK) 's NuvaRing releases a continuous low dose of estrogen and progestin, functioning for three weeks at a time. Its localized hormone application often leads to fewer systemic side effects compared to oral contraceptives.
While contraception is one aspect of managing population growth, these birth control methods have already made an impact in advanced countries. They enable better family planning, improve women's health, and contribute to more stable population growth. Extending similar access to contraceptives in less developed regions, particularly the most populated countries in 2030, could effectively manage population growth. Intended and responsible conception promotes sustainable development, lowers healthcare costs, and contributes to a more balanced demographic structure.
On that note, let's now discuss the top populated countries by 2030!
50 Most Populated Countries In 2030
50 Most Populated Countries In 2030
Our Methodology
We consulted the World Bank's data on population projections to identify the countries expected to be the most populated in 2030. These countries are ranked in ascending order based on the estimates. The projections consider trends in population growth, fertility rates, life expectancy, and migration patterns. It's important to note that these estimates may change due to factors such as government policies, economic conditions, and unforeseen events that could influence population dynamics.
Here are the countries that will have the biggest populations in 2030:
50. Poland
Projected Population in 2030: 34.4 million
Poland's population is declining due to an aging populace and decreasing birth rates, a trend common across Europe. Although the population is projected to shrink to 30 million by 2050, it is estimated to be 34.4 million by the decade-end, putting Poland among the most populated countries in 2030.
49. Niger
Projected Population in 2030: 35.2 million
Niger, characterized by one of the highest population growth rates globally at 3.66%, is experiencing a demographic shift. The country's youthful and rapidly expanding population places it among the countries expected to be the most populated in 2030.
48. Madagascar
Projected Population in 2030: 35.6 million
As of 2023, Madagascar's population has reached approximately 30.3 million, marking a 2.41% increase from 2022. This growth trend has been consistent over recent years, with similar increases observed annually. The country's diverse population, predominantly youthful with a significant portion under 15, remains largely rural. However, there is a noticeable trend towards urbanization. Cities like Antananarivo expand as people seek better economic opportunities and transition from traditional living patterns.
47. Malaysia
Projected Population in 2030: 36.6 million
Malaysia's diverse demographic, including Malay, Chinese, Indian, and indigenous populations, is experiencing growth driven by natural increase and immigration, particularly in urban areas like Kuala Lumpur. Malaysia's population growth, linked to its economic development, attracts international migration, positioning it among the most populated countries in 2030.
46. Peru
Projected Population in 2030: 36.7 million
Peru's population, comprising significant indigenous, European, African, and Asian descent groups, experiences a growth rate of 0.8% per year on average. Factors contributing to this increase can include improved healthcare, leading to lower mortality rates and sustained birth rates.
45. Ghana
Projected Population in 2030: 38.7 million
Ghana, one of the countries with the highest poverty rates, has approximately 25% of its population living on less than $2.15 a day. Despite significant poverty and inadequate healthcare, the country's population is anticipated to increase to 38.7 million in 2030, up from 25.5 million in 2010.
44. Uzbekistan
Projected Population in 2030: 39.4 million
UNICEF reports that about 60% of Uzbekistan's population is under 30 years of age, reflecting high birth rates. This places Uzbekistan among the countries with the biggest populations in 2030. Furthermore, in the next two decades, this young population is poised to constitute Uzbekistan's largest workforce, offering promising socioeconomic development opportunities.
43. Morocco
Projected Population in 2030: 40.2 million
Predominantly Arab-Berber, Morocco's population is growing, particularly in cities like Casablanca and Marrakech. Although population growth has decelerated recently due to healthcare and education improvements, Morocco remains one of the most populous countries, projected to reach 40.2 million in 2030 and 45 million by 2050.
42. Saudi Arabia
Projected Population in 2030: 40.4 million
A significant portion of Saudi Arabia's population is under 30 and predominantly urban, concentrated in cities such as Riyadh and Jeddah. The country's economic status, bolstered by its oil wealth, influences its population dynamics, including migration patterns. Currently, 38.6% of its population is foreign-born, placing it among countries with the highest proportion of immigrants.
41. Ukraine
Projected Population in 2030: 40.6 million
Due to emigration and a low birth rate, Ukraine's population is declining and is anticipated to reach 35 million by 2050. Nevertheless, its projected population of 40.6 million by 2030 remains one of the highest in the world.
40. Mozambique
Projected Population in 2030: 40.9 million
Mozambique's population growth is driven by high fertility rates, significantly influencing its social and economic policies. The country also faces severe poverty, exacerbated by reduced foreign investment and natural disasters.
39. Canada
Projected Population in 2030: 41 million
Canada, known for its high immigrant intake, has 8 million foreign-born residents. Due to its immigrant-friendly policies, the country's population is expected to rise to 41 million in 2030, up from 34 million in 2010. It will be one of the most populated countries in 5-10 years.
38. Angola
Projected Population in 2030: 44.9 million
Angola is projected to have one of the largest populations in 2030, following a three-decade-long civil war. With a current growth rate of approximately 3.34%, the population is not expected to stabilize soon. From 23 million in 2010, Angola's population is forecasted to reach 44.9 million in 2030 and 72 million by 2050.
37. Spain
Projected Population in 2030: 47.05 million
Spain's population growth is relatively stable. While the country is not experiencing significant changes in population numbers, it is not undergoing rapid growth either. Therefore, the current population of 47.5 million is expected to slightly decrease to 47.05 million by 2030.
36. Yemen
Projected Population in 2030: 47.7 million
The Yemeni economy has been severely affected by the ongoing conflict. Socioeconomic conditions have deteriorated rapidly, with the Yemeni rial reaching historic lows. This depreciation has significantly increased food prices, pushing more people into extreme poverty. Despite these challenges, Yemen's population has grown from 24 million in 2010 to 34 million in 2023 and is projected to reach 47.7 million by 2030.
35. Argentia
Projected Population in 2030: 48 million
In 2023, Argentina's population is estimated at approximately 46.4 million, with a growth rate of 1.04% compared to the previous year. Projections suggest that the population will reach 48 million by 2030, peaking at 57.94 million in 2079 before gradually declining.
34. Algeria
Projected Population in 2030: 49.7 million
Algeria's current population is 45 million, marking a 1.57% increase from 2022. The population growth trend has been consistent, rising from 35 million in 2010. It is forecasted to reach 49.7 million in 2030 and surpass 60 million by 2050.
33. Afghanistan
Projected Population in 2030: 50.3 million
Afghanistan's population, which was 19 million in 2000, doubled by 2020 to 38 million. The country has historically had high fertility rates. With a median age of only 17.0 years, the young population is expected to maintain a high birth rate. In 2023, the fertility rate was around 4.41 children per woman, contributing to a projected population of 73.4 million by 2050.
32. Iraq
Projected Population in 2030: 52.8 million
Iraq's population in 2023 was approximately 45.5 million, a 2.27% increase from 2022. The continuation of annual growth suggests that the population will exceed 52 million within the next seven years.
31. Colombia
Projected Population in 2030: 54 million
Colombia's population growth is driven by a higher birth rate compared to the death rate. In 2023, there were approximately 1,957 births per day against 788 deaths. The country's relatively young median age correlates with higher fertility rates and a growing population.
30. Myanmar
Projected Population in 2030: 56.9 million
As of 2023, Myanmar's population was 54.38 million, with an annual growth rate of about 0.67%. The country's population growth is primarily driven by a higher birth rate compared to the death rate, with roughly 2,493 births and 1,317 deaths per day.
29. Italy
Projected Population in 2030: 57.2 million
Italy's population is decreasing and is estimated to reach 51 million by 2050, down from the current 58 million. However, it will remain among the most populous countries in 2030.
28. South Korea
Projected Population in 2030: 59.9 million
South Korea's population is currently decreasing, standing at around 51.78 million in 2023, a slight decline of about 0.06% from 2022. This downward trend is because of an aging population and a consequent decrease in growth rate. Nevertheless, South Korea will remain among the countries that will have the biggest populations in 2030.
27. Kenya
Projected Population in 2030: 63 million
Kenya's median age is a relatively young at 19.6 years, indicating a large proportion of the population is in their reproductive years. Consequently, the country's average population growth rate stands at 2.28%. Notably, approximately 29.4% of Kenyans currently live below the poverty line, facing persistent challenges such as unemployment and illiteracy.
26. South Africa
Projected Population in 2030: 64.6 million
South Africa's current population is around 60.4 million, marking a growth of approximately 0.87% from the previous year. As a major economic hub in Africa, South Africa attracts migrants from other parts of the continent, contributing to its population growth.
25. France
Projected Population in 2030: 68.7 million
France's population is increasing relatively slowly, driven by immigration and a fertility rate higher than the European average. By 2030, the population is expected to reach 68.7 million, with a projection of 68.9 million by 2050.
24. United Kingdom
Projected Population in 2030: 69.8 million
The United Kingdom's population is currently increasing at a modest rate. As of 2023, the population stands at 67.7 million, reflecting an increase of 0.34% from 2022. By 2030, the population is projected to reach 69.8 million.
23. Sudan
Projected Population in 2030: 70.3 million
Sudan has experienced a significant decline in birth rates, from over 7 in the 1970s to 4.5 in 2021. Despite this decrease, it remains one of the most fertile countries as we head into 2024.
22. Thailand
Projected Population in 2030: 70.9 million
Thailand's population, currently at 71.75 million, is decreasing. By 2030, the population is projected to be 70.9 million and 67.8 million by 2050. Births in Thailand have declined nearly a third since 2013, with the 2021 figure at 544,000 - the lowest in over six decades. This number was also below the 563,000 reported deaths in the same year, contributing to the population decrease. Despite this, Thailand is expected to have one of the largest populations in 2030.
21. Uganda
Projected Population in 2030: 73 million
Uganda's average birth rate is 4.64 children per woman, ranking it 16th highest in the world. The country's population increased from 32 million in 2010 to 44 million in 2020. It is projected to reach 87 million by 2050.
20. Germany
Projected Population in 2030: 83.3 million
Germany's current population is 83.3 million, showing a slight decrease of 0.09% from 2022. This decline is attributed to low birth rates, an aging population (median age 44.9 years), and migration trends. The population is projected to continue decreasing, falling to 79 million by 2050.
19. Turkey
Projected Population in 2030: 88 million
Turkey's population is on the rise. The current population is 85.2 million, up from 73 million in 2010. By 2050, the population is expected to reach 95.8 million, primarily due to natural increase and migration.
18. Iran
Projected Population in 2030: 92 million
Iran's population in 2023 is around 89.2 million, showing a growth of about 0.7% from 2022. The increase is primarily attributed to natural population growth. Projections suggest a peak population of 99 million by 2050, followed by an anticipated decline.
17. Vietnam
Projected Population in 2030: 102 million
Vietnam's population currently stands at 98.9 million, marking an increase of about 0.68% from the previous year. The country's median age of 32.8 years contributes to a higher birth rate.
16. Tanzania
Projected Population in 2030: 104.9 million
According to UNDESA Population Projections 2022, Tanzania is expected to experience a 378% population increase by 2100, becoming the third-highest-growing country in terms of population. If the current growth rate of 2.75% per year continues, the population will reach approximately 105 million in 2030.
15. Japan
Projected Population in 2030: 119 million
Japan's population, which is currently 123 million in 2023, has decreased from 126 million in 2020. The decline is due to an aging population and trends towards later marriage or opting to remain childless amid economic pressures. Despite this, Japan is projected to remain one of the most populated countries in 2030, with a projected population of 119 million.
14. Egypt
Projected Population in 2030: 125 million
Egypt's population has grown from 71 million in 2000 to 107 million in 2020. By 2030, it is expected to reach around 125 million, with a projected increase to 160 million by 2050.
13. Democratic Republic of Congo
Projected Population in 2030: 127 million
The Democratic Republic of Congo, with a 3.13% annual population growth rate, ranks ninth highest globally. The country's population is projected to increase by +304% by 2100. Notably, 62% of its population lives on less than $2.15 a day, highlighting significant poverty.
12. Philippines
Projected Population in 2030: 129 million
The Philippines is experiencing a population surge, estimated at 117.3 million in 2023, with an annual growth rate of about 1.54%. This increase is driven by a high birth rate and a relatively young median age of 25 years.
11. Mexico
Projected Population in 2030: 134.5 million
Mexico's population, estimated between 128.5 million and 133.6 million in 2023, shows a growth rate of 0.73% to 1.37%. The growth stems from natural increases and positive migration rates.
