5 Things FedEx Corporation's Management Wants You to Know About 2018

FedEx Corporation (NYSE: FDX) reported its fiscal second-quarter earnings a few days before Christmas. While it was easy to lose track of them in the festive merriment, they actually contained a lot of positive indicators for investors leading into 2018. Let's take a closer look at five key takeaways from the earnings presentations and how the company is set for the coming year.

1. Peak delivery season

FedEx and to a greater extent United Parcel Service (NYSE: UPS) have previously had issues dealing with the surge in demand on certain days during the holiday season, but FedEx's commentary suggested it was fully on track this year. "From a service perspective, we are having the best peak ever at FedEx Ground," said COO David Bronczek on the earnings call. "I should add we are having the best peak ever at FedEx Express and FedEx Freight."

A FedEx plane in flight.
A FedEx plane in flight.

Image source: FedEx Corp.

Of course, this doesn't necessarily mean it will be the most profitable peak season ever, but it does imply FedEx is servicing peak demand in line with its plans. This matters because both companies can be forced to carry increased costs when they can't meet service levels. For example, a comparison of UPS's fourth-quarter adjusted operating profit and purchased transportation costs shows how increases in the latter -- necessary because UPS is using third-party transportation in order to ensure deliveries during peak demand -- shows how it can eat into profit.

UPS purchased transportation costs against adjusted operating profit
UPS purchased transportation costs against adjusted operating profit

Data source: United Parcel Service presentations. Millions of U.S. dollars.

The good news is, so far this holiday season, FedEx is managing to service peak demand at a high level.

2. Trump's tax bill impact

In further good news, President Donald Trump's Tax Cuts and Jobs Act is expected to positively impact FedEx in two ways:

  • Revaluation of FedEx's net deferred liabilities would increase EPS by between $4.40 and $5.50 in 2018 according to CFO Alan Graf.

  • CEO Fred Smith believes that "if the tax bill works as anticipated, there will be a significant growth in GDP" and this would help boost revenue and ultimately capital spending and hiring at FedEx.

3. and 4. Ground margin and cash flow generation

There are two big challenges facing UPS and FedEx. The first is maintaining margin in the face of burgeoning business-to-consumer (B2C) e-commerce deliveries -- they can be bulky, inefficiently packed, and expensive to deliver to residencies. The second is generating free cash flow growth in light of having to step up capital spending on networks in order to service e-commerce demand, particularly during peak demand.