In This Article:
Wall Street has experienced heightened volatility in recent weeks, with major indices swinging sharply. The growing uncertainty over former President Donald Trump’s trade tariff policies and worsening U.S.-China relations have been major contributors to market turbulence. SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust SPY lost over 7% in the past month (as of April 17, 2025).
In comparison, several quality ETFs stayed steady amidst the tariff turmoil. VanEck MSCI International Quality ETF QUAL has lost 5.8% during the above-mentioned period. Let’s delve a little deeper.
Fed Chair Powell Flags Economic Risks
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell warned that escalating trade tensions could lead to inflation while simultaneously slowing economic growth — a combination that could trigger stagflation (read: Fed Pause Amid Stagflation Risks? Smart ETF Moves to Follow).
He stated that the central bank is not in a hurry to cut interest rates and will wait for more clarity regarding the administration’s trade stance. Powell acknowledged the potential dilemma the Fed could face: managing inflation without stalling economic progress.
Consumer Confidence Dips Despite Encouraging Data
While recent inflation and retail sales data have shown strength, consumer sentiment has continued to decline. According to the University of Michigan's latest survey, consumer sentiment in April fell to its lowest point since 2022. The survey also reported that one-year inflation expectations jumped to 6.7%, the highest since November 1981, up from 5% in March.
Over a five-year horizon, inflation expectations rose to 4.4%, marking the highest level since June 1991. Many analysts believe these indicators signal a higher risk of recession, as economic activity appears to be slowing.
Temporary Tariff Relief Offers Little Clarity
Although Trump has paused “reciprocal” tariffs for 90 days on imports from about 75 countries, uncertainty remains regarding future trade actions. He is expected to announce a new tariff on imported semiconductors ahead, though he has indicated there may be some flexibility for certain companies in the sector.
NVIDIA Hit by New Export Restrictions
NVIDIA NVDA shares plummeted 6.7% last week as reports surfaced that the company would be affected by new U.S. government restrictions on semiconductor exports to China. These limitations are projected to cost the chipmaker approximately $5.5 billion in charges.
Why Quality Investing?
Quality stocks are rich in value characteristics with healthy balance sheets, high return on capital, low volatility, elevated margins, and a track record of stable or rising sales and earnings growth. These stocks thus reduce volatility when compared to plain vanilla funds and hold up rather well during market swings.