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It's been a mediocre week for Hugo Boss AG (ETR:BOSS) shareholders, with the stock dropping 13% to €36.90 in the week since its latest yearly results. It was a credible result overall, with revenues of €4.3b and statutory earnings per share of €3.09 both in line with analyst estimates, showing that Hugo Boss is executing in line with expectations. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. So we collected the latest post-earnings statutory consensus estimates to see what could be in store for next year.
See our latest analysis for Hugo Boss
Taking into account the latest results, Hugo Boss' 17 analysts currently expect revenues in 2025 to be €4.37b, approximately in line with the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to step up 13% to €3.49. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of €4.43b and earnings per share (EPS) of €3.65 in 2025. So it looks like there's been a small decline in overall sentiment after the recent results - there's been no major change to revenue estimates, but the analysts did make a small dip in their earnings per share forecasts.
It might be a surprise to learn that the consensus price target fell 5.4% to €45.30, with the analysts clearly linking lower forecast earnings to the performance of the stock price. Fixating on a single price target can be unwise though, since the consensus target is effectively the average of analyst price targets. As a result, some investors like to look at the range of estimates to see if there are any diverging opinions on the company's valuation. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Hugo Boss at €74.00 per share, while the most bearish prices it at €34.00. This is a fairly broad spread of estimates, suggesting that analysts are forecasting a wide range of possible outcomes for the business.
Taking a look at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can understand these forecasts is to see how they compare to both past performance and industry growth estimates. We would highlight that Hugo Boss' revenue growth is expected to slow, with the forecast 1.4% annualised growth rate until the end of 2025 being well below the historical 15% p.a. growth over the last five years. Compare this against other companies (with analyst forecasts) in the industry, which are in aggregate expected to see revenue growth of 7.5% annually. So it's pretty clear that, while revenue growth is expected to slow down, the wider industry is also expected to grow faster than Hugo Boss.