It's been a good week for MailUp S.p.A. (BIT:MAIL) shareholders, because the company has just released its latest yearly results, and the shares gained 4.0% to €4.42. It was an okay result overall, with revenues coming in at €61m, roughly what the analysts had been expecting. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. We've gathered the most recent statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their earnings models, following these results.
Check out our latest analysis for MailUp
Taking into account the latest results, the most recent consensus for MailUp from twin analysts is for revenues of €68.9m in 2020 which, if met, would be a decent 13% increase on its sales over the past 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to accumulate 10.0% to €0.085. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of €69.2m and earnings per share (EPS) of €0.12 in 2020. The analysts seem to have become more bearish following the latest results. While there were no changes to revenue forecasts, there was a large cut to EPS estimates.
The average price target fell 6.8% to €4.80, with reduced earnings forecasts clearly tied to a lower valuation estimate.
Taking a look at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can understand these forecasts is to see how they compare to both past performance and industry growth estimates. It's pretty clear that there is an expectation that MailUp's revenue growth will slow down substantially, with revenues next year expected to grow 13%, compared to a historical growth rate of 39% over the past five years. Juxtapose this against the other companies in the industry with analyst coverage, which are forecast to grow their revenues (in aggregate) 10% next year. So it's pretty clear that, while MailUp's revenue growth is expected to slow, it's still expected to grow faster than the industry itself.
The Bottom Line
The biggest concern is that the analysts reduced their earnings per share estimates, suggesting business headwinds could lay ahead for MailUp. Happily, there were no major changes to revenue forecasts, with the business still expected to grow faster than the wider industry. Furthermore, the analysts also cut their price targets, suggesting that the latest news has led to greater pessimism about the intrinsic value of the business.
With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. At least one analyst has provided forecasts out to 2021, which can be seen for free on our platform here.