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When Wall Street turns bearish on a stock, it’s worth paying attention. These calls stand out because analysts rarely issue grim ratings on companies for fear their firms will lose out in other business lines such as M&A advisory.
Whatever the consensus opinion may be, our team at StockStory cuts through the noise by conducting independent analysis to determine a company’s long-term prospects. Keeping that in mind, here are three stocks facing legitimate challenges and some alternatives worth exploring instead.
Microchip Technology (MCHP)
Consensus Price Target: $63.34 (9.2% implied return)
Spun out from General Instrument in 1987, Microchip Technology (NASDAQ: MCHP) is a leading provider of microcontrollers and integrated circuits used mainly in the automotive world, especially in electric vehicles and their charging devices.
Why Do We Avoid MCHP?
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Products and services are facing significant end-market challenges during this cycle as sales have declined by 3.6% annually over the last five years
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Inability to adjust its cost structure while its revenue declined over the last five years led to a 11.6 percentage point drop in the company’s operating margin
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Free cash flow margin shrank by 16 percentage points over the last five years, suggesting the company is consuming more capital to stay competitive
At $58.01 per share, Microchip Technology trades at 51.4x forward P/E. Check out our free in-depth research report to learn more about why MCHP doesn’t pass our bar.
Somnigroup (SGI)
Consensus Price Target: $70.50 (9.8% implied return)
Established through the merger of Tempur-Pedic and Sealy in 2012, Somnigroup (NYSE:SGI) is a bedding manufacturer known for its innovative memory foam mattresses and sleep products
Why Are We Hesitant About SGI?
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Annual revenue growth of 4.6% over the last two years was below our standards for the consumer discretionary sector
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Shrinking returns on capital suggest that increasing competition is eating into the company’s profitability
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5× net-debt-to-EBITDA ratio shows it’s overleveraged and increases the probability of shareholder dilution if things turn unexpectedly
Somnigroup is trading at $64.18 per share, or 22.4x forward P/E. To fully understand why you should be careful with SGI, check out our full research report (it’s free).
Avis Budget Group (CAR)
Consensus Price Target: $116.75 (-0.8% implied return)
The parent company of brands such as Zipcar and Budget Truck Rental, Avis (NASDAQ:CAR) is a provider of car rental and mobility solutions.
Why Is CAR Risky?
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Demand for its offerings was relatively low as its number of available rental days - car rental has underwhelmed
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Diminishing returns on capital suggest its earlier profit pools are drying up
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Short cash runway increases the probability of a capital raise that dilutes existing shareholders