Kroger should remain the top supermarket stock for the foreseeable future.
Amazon’s cloud business will continue to drive the expansion of its retail business.
Walmart’s scale and diversification make it an evergreen retail play.
The past 20 years were rough for retail stocks. Many brick-and-mortar retailers went bankrupt as the rise of e-commerce platforms, the collapse of traditional malls, shifting consumer trends, and two recessions permanently transformed the market.
Yet, that "retail apocalypse" didn't derail the most resilient retailers. Let's take a look at three of them -- Kroger(NYSE: KR), Walmart(NYSE: WMT), and Amazon(NASDAQ: AMZN) -- and see why they could head even higher over the next 20 years.
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Kroger
Kroger's stock soared about 815% over the past 20 years. From fiscal 2004 to fiscal 2024 (which ended in February 2025), its revenue rose at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 5%, and its year-end store count rose from 2,532 to 2,722.
Kroger is now America's largest supermarket operator by annual revenue, and it also owns a wide range of other banners -- including Fred Meyer, Ralphs, Dillons, Fry's Food Stores, King Soopers, and Baker's. It also attempted to merge with Albertsons, but antitrust and regulatory challenges derailed that $24.6 billion deal in late 2024.
Kroger kept growing for three reasons. It strengthened its digital and loyalty programs, it launched more private label products, and it expanded its smaller advertising and health services segments. Its scale offered it more resistance to inflation, recessions, and other macro headwinds than many of its smaller competitors. It also aims to mitigate the effect of the Trump administration's tariffs by diversifying its supplier base and streamlining its supply chains.
Kroger looks cheap at 15 times forward earnings, it pays a decent forward yield of 1.8%, and it's raised its payout for 18 consecutive years. If you want a simple retail stock that will grow steadily over the next 20 years, it checks all the right boxes.
Amazon
Amazon's stock surged 11,630% over the past two decades. From 2004 to 2024, its revenue increased at a CAGR of 25%. It originally only sold books online, but it subsequently evolved into an online superstore and became the world's largest e-commerce company. It also launched the world's top cloud infrastructure platform, Amazon Web Services (AWS).
Today, AWS generates higher-margin revenue than Amazon's e-commerce business. That profit engine enables Amazon to expand its Prime ecosystem with more discounts, free shipping options, and digital perks. It also widens its moat against other brick-and-mortar retailers and might cushion the blow from the incoming tariffs.
Amazon faces tougher competition from cheaper Chinese cross-border e-commerce platforms like PDD's Temu and Shein, but a lot of those merchants also sell their products on its third-party marketplace. Amazon also continues to widen its moat with more grocery deliveries, digital media services, and its Whole Foods Market stores, and it locks in its shoppers with its Prime subscriptions and Alexa-powered smart speakers.
Amazon serves over 200 million Prime members worldwide, and AWS is well-poised to profit from the growth of the cloud and AI markets. That sounds like a recipe for success for the next 20 years -- and it's historically cheap at 28 times forward earnings.
Walmart
Walmart's stock rallied about 520% over the past 20 years. From fiscal 2005 to fiscal 2025 (which ended this January), its revenue grew at a CAGR of 9% as its year-end store count rose from 6,857 to 10,660. In addition to its namesake stores, Walmart owns the warehouse retailer Sam's Club, various regional banners, and several overseas e-commerce marketplaces.
Walmart survived the retail apocalypse by renovating its stores, expanding its e-commerce ecosystem, leveraging its massive network for brick-and-mortar stores to fulfill online orders, and selling more groceries to challenge traditional supermarkets. It also shrewdly matched Amazon's prices and expanded its Walmart+ subscriptions to counter Amazon Prime.
As the largest brick-and-mortar retailer in America, Walmart's scale and diversification enable it to withstand major economic downturns. As for the tariffs, Walmart can use its scale to negotiate better prices with its overseas suppliers or diversify its supply chains to lower-tariff countries. It can even gradually raise its prices to pass those costs on to its shoppers.
Walmart will likely keep dominating the retail sector over the next two decades. It only pays a forward yield of 1%, but it's still a Dividend King, having raised its dividend annually for 52 consecutive years -- and its low payout ratio gives it plenty of room for future hikes. Simply put, Walmart is still one of the best retail stocks for long-term investors to buy and forget.
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John Mackey, former CEO of Whole Foods Market, an Amazon subsidiary, is a member of The Motley Fool's board of directors. Leo Sun has positions in Amazon. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Amazon and Walmart. The Motley Fool recommends Kroger. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.
