Organon’s stock price has taken a beating over the past six months, shedding 46.5% of its value and falling to $8.04 per share. This may have investors wondering how to approach the situation.
Is now the time to buy Organon, or should you be careful about including it in your portfolio? See what our analysts have to say in our full research report, it’s free.
Why Do We Think Organon Will Underperform?
Even though the stock has become cheaper, we're swiping left on Organon for now. Here are three reasons why there are better opportunities than OGN and a stock we'd rather own.
1. Revenue Spiraling Downwards
Reviewing a company’s long-term sales performance reveals insights into its quality. Any business can put up a good quarter or two, but many enduring ones grow for years. Over the last five years, Organon’s demand was weak and its revenue declined by 3.8% per year. This wasn’t a great result and signals it’s a low quality business.
2. EPS Trending Down
Analyzing the long-term change in earnings per share (EPS) shows whether a company's incremental sales were profitable – for example, revenue could be inflated through excessive spending on advertising and promotions.
Organon’s full-year EPS dropped 93.7%, or 18% annually, over the last four years. We tend to steer our readers away from companies with falling revenue and EPS, where diminishing earnings could imply changing secular trends and preferences. If the tide turns unexpectedly, Organon’s low margin of safety could leave its stock price susceptible to large downswings.
3. Free Cash Flow Margin Dropping
If you’ve followed StockStory for a while, you know we emphasize free cash flow. Why, you ask? We believe that in the end, cash is king, and you can’t use accounting profits to pay the bills.
As you can see below, Organon’s margin dropped by 28.9 percentage points over the last five years. It may have ticked higher more recently, but shareholders are likely hoping for its margin to at least revert to its historical level. If the longer-term trend returns, it could signal increasing investment needs and capital intensity. Organon’s free cash flow margin for the trailing 12 months was 12.3%.
Final Judgment
Organon falls short of our quality standards. Following the recent decline, the stock trades at 2.1× forward P/E (or $8.04 per share). While this valuation is optically cheap, the potential downside is huge given its shaky fundamentals. There are better investments elsewhere. We’d suggest looking at an all-weather company that owns household favorite Taco Bell.