After back-to-back years of strong returns for cruise line stocks, this year has been enough to make investors seasick. The three largest cruise line operators are trading 29%, 17%, and 35% lower in 2025. You don't have to go all the way up to the pool deck to see the light about what's going on here.
The trade war rhetoric has rocked the market, and the cruise industry finds itself in choppy waters. It's hard to fathom -- see what I did there? -- the industry not impacted by a wave of protectionism and fiscal isolationism. Will cruising enthusiasts pull back on ocean voyages, fearing a potential uptick in xenophobia? Will the inflationary pressure of tariffs gnaw away at the economic means to afford these sea escapes?
I remain bullish on the industry, seeing the recent pullback as a buying opportunity. I believe that Carnival Corp. (NYSE: CCL), Viking Holdings(NYSE: VIK), and OneSpa World(NASDAQ: OSW) are three no-brainer stocks to buy right now.
1. Carnival
The last of the three cruise line operators to post financial results is also the largest player by revenue and passenger volume. Carnival put out its fiscal first-quarter report three weeks ago, and it's a lot better than you would expect from a stock that has shed nearly a third of its value.
Revenue rose 8% to $5.81 billion for quarter ending in February. This is Carnival's weakest year-over-year growth since resuming operations after the pandemic closures, but it was actually ahead of the $5.74 billion that analysts were modeling. It also came through with with a monster beat on the bottom line, reversing a year-ago deficit. Carnival has now posted seven consecutive quarters of at least double-digit percentage beats over Wall Street pro profit targets. Lately it hasn't even been close.
Period
EPS Estimate
Actual EPS
Surprise
Fiscal Q3 2023
$0.75
$0.86
15%
Fiscal Q4 2023
($0.13)
($0.07)
46%
Fiscal Q1 2024
($0.18)
($0.14)
22%
Fiscal Q2 2024
($0.02)
$0.11
650%
Fiscal Q3 2024
$1.15
$1.27
10%
Fiscal Q4 2024
$0.07
$0.14
94%
Fiscal Q1 2025
$0.02
$0.13
485%
Data source: Yahoo! Finance. EPS = earnings per share (adjusted).
It wasn't a perfect report. Carnival did raise its guidance, but that consisted largely of the beat for its fiscal first quarter. Carnival still offered encouraging booking trends during the quarter. It currently has $7.3 billion in customer deposits for future sailings, higher than it's ever been for the cruise line at this point of the year.
Carnival was trading at an attractive valuation before. It's looking a lot better now as the stock keeps heading south while estimates steer north. Carnival is going for more than 11 times trailing earnings, but that multiple drops to 9.4 if you look out to this year and 8.3 for fiscal 2026. An important caveat here is that Carnival is packing more than $25 billion in debt. This isn't just a concern as we head into a rocky environment where borrowing costs could move higher if inflation gets out of control. The leverage also roughly doubles the earnings multiples if we go by enterprise value instead of the more traditional market cap measuring stick. It's still a good price for the top dog in cruising.
Image source: Getty Images.
2. Viking Holdings
If you thought this list would be just me settling for the three largest cruise lines, you are incorrect. Instead of succumbing to peer pressure -- or pier pressure -- my next pick is smaller than the three major operators. It just happens to be a niche leader in river cruises. Viking's fleet operates a lot more ships than Carnival, but these are smaller boats specializing in luxury sailings across narrow waterways that the big boys can't navigate.
Viking has historically grown faster than the traditional cruise lines. It's also holding up better than the big three with a modest 11% pullback in price year to date. Catering to an older and more affluent target audience than Carnival, Viking relies largely on repeat customers and direct marketing to fill its fleet of ships that typically take on less than 200 passengers.
The near-term outlook is encouraging. Viking mentioned in February that it already has 88% of its 2025 capacity booked. It does trade at a premium to the industry. Investors are paying 17 times this year's projected earnings and 13 times next year's target for Viking. It does have the best debt situation with less than $5 billion in long-term obligations on its books.
3. OneSpaWorld
True to the middle word in its compound moniker, OneSpaWorld operates spas and wellness centers. It pampers guests at 50 different resorts, but its bread-and-butter business is sea salt. OneSpaWorld operates the floating spas on 199 different cruise ships across the major cruise lines. You may think that the leading cruise lines would want to run their own onboard spas, but many of them have tried and fallen short.
OneSpaWorld is a global recruiter of certified treatment providers. It only helps that it has a network of training centers. It takes a certain kind of mettle to embrace providing spa treatments at sea, and this is as close to an unofficial monopoly as it gets.
Growth is encouraging. Revenue rose 11% in its latest quarter, boosted on the way down the income statement by a 37% surge in operating profit. The stock is trading for 17 times this year's earnings and 15 times next year's bottom-line estimate, but it also has less than $100 million in long-term debt on its balance sheet. The asset-light model makes it easier to navigate the ups and downs, and unlike Carnival and Viking it doesn't have to worry the high costs of building and maintaining a fleet of ships.
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Rick Munarriz has positions in Carnival Corp. and Viking. The Motley Fool recommends Carnival Corp. and Viking. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.
