As a Bitcoin(CRYPTO: BTC) investor, it can be confusing to make sense of all the information out there. And that's especially the case when it comes to the weekly influx of new macroeconomic data. It's becoming increasingly difficult to separate the signal from the noise.
So, to help make sense of it all, here are three numbers that can help to ground your thinking about where Bitcoin is headed next.
$1 million
Let's get this number out of the way first. A lot of very smart people on Wall Street think that Bitcoin is going to hit a price of $1 million by the year 2030. And even that number might be too small. Cathie Wood of Ark Invest, for example, recently doubled down on her prediction that Bitcoin is going to hit $1.5 million within the next five years.
This $1 million-plus price forecast is not a pie-in-the-sky number. It's actually based on a very sophisticated building block model approach to valuation. If you look at several key areas where Bitcoin is rapidly gaining in adoption, and then make a few educated guesses about future growth rates in those areas, you can arrive at a future price target.
Image source: Getty Images.
Working backward from the $1 million number can give you a lot of insights. For example, it implies that Bitcoin must grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of about 60% over that five-year period to clear the $1 million price hurdle. In her original $1.5 million price forecast, Wood used a CAGR of 75%.
Considering that Bitcoin has routinely turned in triple-digit annual percentage returns for much of its history, those numbers are more plausible than many people might first assume. In 2024, for example, Bitcoin was the top-performing asset in the world, when it soared by 125%. In the 10-year period from 2011 to 2021, Bitcoin delivered annualized returns of 230%.
$100 billion
The new spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) have attracted $100 billion from investors. Since their launch back in January 2024, these ETFs have been some of the most successful new products in Wall Street history.
Right now, the top spot Bitcoin ETF is the iShares Bitcoin Trust(NASDAQ: IBIT) from BlackRock, which has pulled in a staggering $50 billion from investors. To give you an idea of just how big this number is, in November 2024, the amount of money invested in BlackRock's Bitcoin ETF surpassed the amount of money invested in its gold ETF. And the gold ETF has been around for nearly 20 years.
Tracking investor inflows and outflows has become a new pastime of Bitcoin investors. The thinking here is very simple: If money is flowing into the ETFs, it means the price of Bitcoin is going to go up. And if money is flowing out of the ETFs, it means the price of Bitcoin is going to go down. During the worst period of tariff uncertainty, for example, these Bitcoin ETFs posted five straight weeks of outflows.
It's getting to the point where these ETFs hold more Bitcoin than anyone else in the world. So they have become an important tool for gauging investor sentiment.
Right now, the largest sovereign holder of Bitcoin is the U.S., with 198,109 Bitcoins. The largest corporate holder of Bitcoin is Strategy (the company formerly known as MicroStrategy), with 528,185 Bitcoins. And the iShares Bitcoin Trust? Well, it's at the very top, with 575,856 Bitcoins.
$2 trillion
Bitcoin now has a market cap of about $1.7 trillion. However, this number soared past the $2 trillion mark in January, when Bitcoin hit a new all-time high of $109,000. This market cap figure is very easy to calculate -- all you need to do is multiply the number of Bitcoins in circulation (19.84 million) by the current spot price for Bitcoin of about $85,000. Using some quick math, Bitcoin needs to hit $100,000 to get back to this $2 trillion valuation.
This $2 trillion figure is important for a reason -- it means that Bitcoin roughly has the same valuation as the world's biggest tech stocks. By way of comparison, Amazon has a market cap of $2.1 trillion. Google parent Alphabet has a market cap of about $1.9 trillion. Only a handful of tech stocks -- Apple, Nvidia, and Microsoft -- have higher valuations than Bitcoin.
In fact, Standard Chartered recently concluded that it might be more instructive to think about Bitcoin as a tech stock rather than a cryptocurrency. That's because, based on correlations, Bitcoin is starting to trade more and more like a tech stock. It even suggested a new "Magnificent Seven," known as the "Magnificent 7B," with the "B" denoting Bitcoin. (To keep the number of stocks at seven, the analysts tossed out Tesla, which has stumbled lately, and replaced it with Bitcoin.)
A mental model for Bitcoin
Putting all three of these numbers together, it's possible to come up with a mental model of how Bitcoin works, what factors affect its rise and fall, and what a realistic valuation for Bitcoin might be. At the very least, focusing on these three numbers can help you separate the signal from the noise, and understand better how Bitcoin fits into the global financial markets.
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John Mackey, former CEO of Whole Foods Market, an Amazon subsidiary, is a member of The Motley Fool’s board of directors. Suzanne Frey, an executive at Alphabet, is a member of The Motley Fool’s board of directors. Dominic Basulto has positions in Amazon and Bitcoin. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Bitcoin, Microsoft, Nvidia, and Tesla. The Motley Fool recommends the following options: long January 2026 $395 calls on Microsoft and short January 2026 $405 calls on Microsoft. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.
