The global economy has struggled post-Covid, and growth slowed down in most countries across the world, starting from 2022 when record inflation rates impacted the world, and the central banks of most nations hiked interest rates in a bid to control inflation, both of which were direct contributors to the economic growth rate declining, even among the largest economies in the world by 2030.
According to the World Economic Forum, the global growth rate for 2023 is projected to decline to 3% in both 2023 and 2024, worse than even 2022 when the growth rate was 3.5%. Even then, this is partially good news because the projected global growth rate for 2023 was initially lower than eve 3%, even as high interest rates from central banks have been cited as one of the primary reasons behind the decline in economic activity. On the other hand, more positive news is expected in terms of inflation rates, as global headline inflation is expected to decline to 6.8% in 2023, as compared to 8.7% in 2022, which should also result in corresponding declines in interest rates, though inflation rates will still be relatively high compared to pre-2022 rates.
While the largest economies in the world right now and by 2030 already experience slow, stable growth, some of these countries actually have fast growing economies including India and China. China in fact, considered by many to become the biggest economy in the world by 2030, has had a fast growing economy over the last few decades, but its fortunes seem to have turned post Covid-19. Unlike most nations, China continued to implement a Zero-Covid policy even after the threat had diminished, resulting in its economy remaining closed for much longer than other countries and has struggled to recover economically since.
China's economic slowdown has been more pronounced than in other large economies, and investors are now reconsidering whether the country will provide protection from weaknesses in other economies. Considering the fact that China has made major investments in many developing countries including Sri Lanka and Pakistan, countries who have defaulted or are at risk of default, China's economic downturn is leading to even more questions. Hong Kong's Han Seng Index is now in a bear market, and has fallen more than 20% from the peak it achieved back in January 2023. Even the Chinese yuan, a currency which has been considered to be a threat to the U.S. dollar as the premier global currency, has slid to its lowest level in over 15 years, which has resulted in China's central bank increasing the rate to purchase dollars much higher than the actual market value.
One of the reasons behind China's economic woes is its real estate crisis, which began in 2021 after the country's biggest real estate company in Evergrande defaulted on its debts, and is currently undergoing a debt reconstruction process. Additional companies which have further deepened the real estate crisis include Country Garden, one of the biggest developers there by property sales, also defaulting on its debts and though China's government is attempting to revive the real estate market, additional players are also considered to be at risk of default, all of which will impact China's ambition to become the largest economy in the world by 2030. In fact, some publications are already reconsidering their forecasts with respect to China's economy in light of new information. Because of the property slump, local government debt has spiraled as well. Additional actions have further alienated major corporations operating in China, including Apple Inc. (NASDAQ:AAPL), whose share price suffered a major slump after China reportedly banned government officials from owning iPhone.
The aforementioned issues facing China have been incredibly beneficial to another large economy making its presence felt globally, India. Not only does India have a consistently growing middle-class population, it is also attracting investments from across the world in a bid to convince more companies to operate there, and India has received nearly $600 billion in Foreign Direct Investment in just the past 9 years, which makes up more than 60% of FDIs received in 23 years. Apple Inc. (NASDAQ:AAPL) has also been moving towards India while still maintaining a strong presence in China for production, and opened two large retail stores in India in 2023 amid US-China tensions. India's potential was also mentioned in Apple Inc.'s (NASDAQ:AAPL) Q2 2023 earnings call, which stated "Looking at the business in India, we did set a quarterly record, grew very strong, double digits year-over-year. So it was quite a good quarter for us, taking a step back, India is an incredibly exciting market. It's a major focus for us. I was just there, and the Dynamism in the market, the vibrancy is unbelievable. Over time, we've been expanding our operations there to serve more customers, and three years ago, we launched the Apple Store online, and then, as you just mentioned, we launched two stores just a few weeks ago, and they're off to a great start, one in Mumbai and one in Delhi. We've got a number of channel partners in the country as well that we're partnering with, and we're very happy with how that's going overall. Overall, I couldn't be more delighted and excited by the enthusiasm I'm seeing for the brand there. There are a lot of people coming into the middle class, and I really feel that India is at a tipping point, and it's great to be there." As a lot of focus shifts to India, one of the largest economies in the world by 2030, many investors are now looking in this direction, and ETFs tracking India include iShares MSCI India ETF, which has had a YTD return of 6%.
Methodology
To determine the largest economies in the world by 2030, we accessed the International Monetary Fund's data on each nation's GDP up to 2028. We then calculated the CAGR of each country from 2023 to 2028 and prorated it to obtain their GDP for 2030. The countries are ranked from highest GDP in 2030 to lowest.
Projected GDP in 2030 (in billions): $ $878.99
Vietnam has shown economic promise for decades but now seems to be capitalizing on it, and was the fastest growing economy in Asia in 2023.
Projected GDP in 2030 (in billions): $934.85
Bangladesh has seen exponential growth in recent years and had the second-highest GDP CAGR from 2023 to 2028 of any country in our list.
Projected GDP in 2030 (in billions): $1,084.28
Taiwan has faced a tough 2023 as semiconductor sales have dropped significantly but it's still expected to post a recovery in the longer term.
Projected GDP in 2030 (in billions): $1,127.39
Poland has displayed remarkable growth in the last three decades after freeing itself from the influence of the Soviet Union, and is fast becoming a hub for many major global companies.
Projected GDP in 2030 (in billions): $1,160.23
Nigeria is one of only two countries among the nations with the biggest economies in 2030 to register a CAGR of double-digit from 2023 to 2028. In fact, GDP is expected to more than double from over $500 billion in 2022 to nearly $1.2 trillion in 2030.
Projected GDP in 2030 (in billions): $1,218.41
While Switzerland's growth has been lower than average, it is still expected to grow at a stable level in the next decade, though the revival of growth in productivity and higher participation in the labor market are integral to making this happen.
Projected GDP in 2030 (in billions): $1,344.41
Saudi Arabia saw its economic growth in 2022 increase by an incredible 8.7%, the highest among all countries in the G20.
Projected GDP in 2030 (in billions): $1,375.76
The Netherlands has faced challenges in a harsh economy and recently, the country revised its GDP growth forecast downwards, primarily because of the fact that the Dutch economy is highly integrated internationally.
Projected GDP in 2030 (in billions): $1,480.88
Türkiye has seen inflation reach nearly 50% in 2023, and recently cut its economic growth forecast, though economic growth has still exceeded 4% in 2022 and 2023.
Projected GDP in 2030 (in billions): $1,870.30
Despite fiscal challenges, Spain recently provided a boost to the eurozone in the second quarter of 2023, after outperforming expectations.
Projected GDP in 2030 (in billions): $2,138.62
Australia is facing significant challenges to its economy and according to Deloitte, per capita economic activity in Australia in 2025 is expected to be the same as it was in 2021, highlighting the lack of growth in the country.
Projected GDP in 2030 (in billions): $2,157.91
While most of Latin America has suffered in the last year or two, Mexico has been considered to be the standout performer, aided by various companies establishing manufacturing facilities in Mexico to take advantage of cheaper labor while being in close proximity to the U.S.
Projected GDP in 2030 (in billions): $2,308.52
South Korea's emergence as a highly advanced economy over the past few decades has been nothing short of remarkable and its strong growth is expected to continue in the long term, making it one of the biggest global economies by 2030.
Projected GDP in 2030 (in billions): $2,353.22
Russia has the lowest expected GDP growth rate from 2023 to 2028, unsurprising considering the severe sanctions imposed by Western countries after its invasion of Ukraine.
Projected GDP in 2030 (in billions): $2,391.02
The largest Muslim country in the world, Indonesia is expected to surpass other competitors including Russia in the coming years, even as emerging Asia is seeing a tougher economic outlook.
Projected GDP in 2030 (in billions): $2,572.61
While Italy recently received 200 billion euros from the European Union, there is a lot of skepticism that the country won't be able to make it count.
Projected GDP in 2030 (in billions): $2,845.39
The immediate economic outlook for Canada isn't very positive, and a downturn is expected in 2024, before rebounding in 2025 and 2026.
Projected GDP in 2030 (in billions): $3,088.07
The largest economy in Latin America saw a strong recovery in 2023 and its GDP growth expectation was revised from 0.8% to 2% for 2023.
Projected GDP in 2030 (in billions): $3,598.16
Amid social tensions, France's economic outlook has weakened recently though it will still easily be among the largest economies in the world by 2030.
Projected GDP in 2030 (in billions): $4,778.29
The UK has suffered significantly post Covid-19, especially in terms of cost of living and the energy crisis, while frequent changes in Prime Ministers have not bolstered confidence. Despite these setbacks, the UK is expected to have a CAGR of over 6% from 2023 to 2028.
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Disclosure: None. 25 largest economies in the world by 2030 is originally published on Insider Monkey.
