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The labor market is one of the hottest topics in America right now. Politicians and economists are at odds on whether the recent job growth in America is a good thing. While President Biden is ecstatic that the American economy is roaring and jobs are growing, officials at the Federal Reserve would really like the jobs market to slow down and the economy to cool.

This divergence in opinion is due to the impacts on the economy from first the coronavirus pandemic and then the Russian invasion of Ukraine. To counter the effects of the virus, which came in the form of lockdowns that slowed productivity and created job losses, the Federal Reserve undertook a historic stimulus package and a low interest rate environment. Cumulatively, these injected trillions of dollars into the economy. Estimates suggest that the U.S. government provided more than $5 trillion through stimulus checks to people, and this increased the money flowing into the economy. The more money that people have, the more they spend, which then increases product demand. To keep up with the demand, manufacturers expand their capacity, which in turn leads to higher prices also called inflation.

But how is this related to the labor market? Well, higher demand and low interest rates make businesses expand their operations and hire more people. At the same time, they also increase salaries, which further boosts purchasing power and contributes to price increases. To slow this economic growth, the Federal Reserve has to increase interest rates, and right now, it's basing its decisions on a couple of factors - out of which one the most important is the labor market. A slowdown in the labor market indicates that businesses find it unfeasible to grow their operations, which then gives the Fed confidence to stop its monetary contraction and wait for the market to stabilize.

The importance of the labor market was evidenced during Fed Chairman Mr. Jerome Powell's comments after the bank's latest Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting held earlier this month. After the meeting, Chair Powell while addressing reporters shared:

I don't think you can deduce exactly what you said about what participants [analysts, economists] think because you don't know what they were thinking for first quarter GDP at that point. They could have been thinking about a fairly low number. Anyway, in any case, I'll just say I continue to think that it's possible that this time is really different. And the reason is there's just so much excess demand, really, in the labor market. It's interesting as, you know, we've raised rates by 5 percentage points in 14 months, and the unemployment rate is 3 1/2 percent, pretty much where it was, even lower than where it was when we started. So job openings are still very, very high. We see by surveys and much, much evidence that conditions are cooling gradually. But it's -- it really is different. You know, it wasn't supposed to be possible for job openings to decline by as much of the -- as they've declined without unemployment going up. Well, that's what we've seen. So we -- there are no promises in this. But it just seems that -- to me that it's possible that we can continue to have a cooling in the labor market without having the big increases in unemployment that have gone with many, you know, prior episodes. Now, that would be against history. I fully appreciate that. That would be against the pattern. But I do think that it -- that this, that the situation in the labor market with so much excess demand, yet, you know, wages are actually -- wages have been moving down.