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If you love investing in stocks you're bound to buy some losers. But long term Ziff Davis, Inc. (NASDAQ:ZD) shareholders have had a particularly rough ride in the last three year. Unfortunately, they have held through a 62% decline in the share price in that time. The more recent news is of little comfort, with the share price down 31% in a year. And the share price decline continued over the last week, dropping some 7.7%.
With the stock having lost 7.7% in the past week, it's worth taking a look at business performance and seeing if there's any red flags.
See our latest analysis for Ziff Davis
While the efficient markets hypothesis continues to be taught by some, it has been proven that markets are over-reactive dynamic systems, and investors are not always rational. By comparing earnings per share (EPS) and share price changes over time, we can get a feel for how investor attitudes to a company have morphed over time.
Although the share price is down over three years, Ziff Davis actually managed to grow EPS by 85% per year in that time. Given the share price reaction, one might suspect that EPS is not a good guide to the business performance during the period (perhaps due to a one-off loss or gain). Alternatively, growth expectations may have been unreasonable in the past.
Since the change in EPS doesn't seem to correlate with the change in share price, it's worth taking a look at other metrics.
We note that, in three years, revenue has actually grown at a 3.2% annual rate, so that doesn't seem to be a reason to sell shares. This analysis is just perfunctory, but it might be worth researching Ziff Davis more closely, as sometimes stocks fall unfairly. This could present an opportunity.
The company's revenue and earnings (over time) are depicted in the image below (click to see the exact numbers).
It's probably worth noting that the CEO is paid less than the median at similar sized companies. But while CEO remuneration is always worth checking, the really important question is whether the company can grow earnings going forward. This free report showing analyst forecasts should help you form a view on Ziff Davis
A Different Perspective
While the broader market gained around 32% in the last year, Ziff Davis shareholders lost 31%. However, keep in mind that even the best stocks will sometimes underperform the market over a twelve month period. Unfortunately, last year's performance may indicate unresolved challenges, given that it was worse than the annualised loss of 8% over the last half decade. Generally speaking long term share price weakness can be a bad sign, though contrarian investors might want to research the stock in hope of a turnaround. I find it very interesting to look at share price over the long term as a proxy for business performance. But to truly gain insight, we need to consider other information, too. For instance, we've identified 1 warning sign for Ziff Davis that you should be aware of.