Banks worldwide have been continuously undertaking restructuring efforts to focus more on core operations. While these efforts are expected to result in elevated expenses, they will aid growth in the long run. While the uneven economic recovery in developed and emerging nations has been hurting revenue growth for companies within the Zacks Foreign Banks Industry, relatively lower interest rates will provide support.
Despite geopolitical concerns, industry players like HSBC Holdings plc HSBC and UBS Group AG UBS are well-placed to gain from business streamlining efforts and low rates.
About the Industry
The Zacks Foreign Banks Industry consists of overseas banks with operations in the United States. Since a foreign banking organization may have federal and state-chartered offices in the country, the Federal Reserve plays a major role in supervising their U.S. operations. In addition to providing a broad range of products and services to customers in the United States, the banks offer financial services to corporate clients having businesses in the country. The financial firms establish relations with U.S. corporations operating in their home countries. Some units of foreign banks offer a broad range of wholesale and retail services and conduct money-market transactions for their parent organizations. Some industry players are involved in developing only specialized services like wealth/asset management and investment banking.
3 Foreign Bank Industry Themes at Play
Relatively Lower Interest Rates: The central banks globally have started lowering interest rates as inflation numbers gradually cool. This is expected to support foreign banks’ net interest income (NII) and margin, which were under pressure because of rising funding/deposit costs. With rates coming down, coupled with decent economic growth, demand for loans is also expected to improve. Industry players are likely to witness NII expansion. Further, efforts taken by most banks to diversify revenues to become less dependent on spread income are likely to aid non-interest income. Also, lower interest rates will lead to the revival of investment banking business and support wealth/asset management operations. Hence, industry players are likely to record an increase in revenues in the coming quarters.
Restructuring Efforts: Several foreign banks are undertaking business restructuring initiatives. Many banks have been divesting or closing non-core operations to increase focus on core businesses and profitable markets. Through this, industry players are changing their revenue mix and aiming to expand to other lucrative operations.
Uneven Global Economic Recovery: Following the COVID-19 pandemic, global economic recovery has been uneven. In many regions, economic growth has slowed down but not fully recovered from the pandemic effect, while geopolitical headwinds are hurting the economy in others. Banks’ performances are directly linked to the performance of the overall economy. Weak economic growth in their home markets may hurt foreign banks’ profitability to some extent in the upcoming period.
Zacks Industry Rank Indicates Bright Prospects
The Zacks Foreign Banks Industry is a 66-stock group within the broader Zacks Finance Sector. The industry currently carries a Zacks Industry Rank #74, which places it in the top 30% of more than 250 Zacks industries.
The group’s Zacks Industry Rank, which is basically the average of the Zacks Rank of all the member stocks, indicates outperformance in the near term. Our research shows that the top 50% of the Zacks-ranked industries outperform the bottom 50% by a factor of more than 2 to 1.
We present a few stocks from the industry that you may want to invest in. But before that, let us check out the industry’s recent stock market performance and valuation picture.
Industry Versus S&P 500 and Sector
The Zacks Foreign Banks Industry has underperformed the S&P 500 and its sector in the past two years. Stocks in the industry have collectively risen 32.5%. The S&P 500 composite has rallied 57.3%, and the Zacks Finance Sector has appreciated 39.9%.
Two-Year Price Performance
Industry's Valuation
One might get a good sense of the industry’s relative valuation by looking at its price-to-tangible book ratio (P/TBV), which is commonly used for valuing foreign banks because of large variations in their earnings results from one quarter to the next.
The industry currently has a trailing 12-month P/TBV of 1.97X. This compares with the highest level of 2.38X, the lowest level of 0.79X and the median of 1.64X over the past five years. The industry is trading at a significant discount compared with the market at large, as the trailing 12-month P/TB for the S&P 500 composite is 14.54X, which the chart below shows.
Price-to-Tangible Book Ratio (TTM)
As finance stocks typically have a lower P/TBV ratio, comparing foreign banks with the S&P 500 might not make sense to many investors. However, a comparison of the group’s P/TBV ratio with that of its broader sector ensures that it is trading at a decent discount. The Zacks Finance Sector’s trailing 12-month P/TBV of 5.25X and the median level of 4.51X for the same period are above the Zacks Foreign Banks Industry’s ratios.
Price-to-Tangible Book Ratio (TTM)
2 Foreign Bank Stocks to Bet On
HSBC: Headquartered in London, HSBC is a major global banking and financial services firm with $3.1 trillion in assets as of Sept. 30, 2024. The company has been committed to bolstering its performance, focusing on building operations across Asia. It intends to position itself as a top bank for high-net-worth and ultra-high-net-worth clients in the region.
In sync with its Asia pivot strategy, HSBC acquired Citigroup's retail wealth management business in China and Singapore-based SilkRoad Property Partners Group. Also, it re-launched its private banking business in India.
HSBC has been restructuring its operations to improve operating efficiency. In October 2024, it announced an initiative to simplify its organizational structure and operate through four distinct lines of businesses — Hong Kong, UK, Corporate & Institutional Banking and International Wealth & Premier Banking.
Also, the company is divesting from less profitable markets and has announced the sale of businesses in Germany, South Africa, Argentina and Armenia. HSBC has exited retail operations in the United States, Canada, France, New Zealand, Greece and Russia.
Shares of the company have risen 11.1% on the NYSE in the past six months. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for its current-year earnings has moved 5.6% higher in the past 60 days. Currently, HSBC carries a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy). You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.
Price and Consensus: HSBC
UBS Group: Zurich, Switzerland-based UBS Group is a major global financial services firm with $1.62 trillion in total assets as of Sept. 30, 2024.
Over the years, UBS has fortified its geographic footprint and expanded operations with strategic partnerships and buyouts. In 2023, the company acquired its rival Credit Suisse in a regulatory-assisted deal. This move enhanced its capabilities in wealth and asset management and aided in growing its capital-light businesses.
According to its business restructuring plans, UBS Group is likely to wind down its Non-Core and Legacy portfolio, releasing more than $6 billion of capital by 2026-end. Through these efforts, the bank aims to achieve gross cost reductions of around $7.5 billion by the end of 2024 and $13 billion by 2026-end compared with the 2022 levels. Since the end of 2022, the company has achieved $6 billion or around 45% of total targeted cost savings.
Also, UBS Group’s wealth management joint venture (JV) with Japan’s Sumitomo Mitsui Trust Holdings (UBS SuMi TRUST Wealth Management Co.) and investment banking JV with Banco Do Brasil SA are expected to keep supporting its financials. The company, which has a Zacks Rank of 2, is making efforts to become more digital and data-driven to provide clients with digital-first services. These provide the company with a competitive edge.
UBS shares have rallied 1.7% on the NYSE in the past six months. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the company’s 2024 earnings has moved 18.4% higher in the past 60 days.
Price and Consensus: UBS
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