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Wall Street watches a company's quarterly report closely to understand as much as possible about its recent performance and what to expect going forward. Of course, one figure often stands out among the rest: earnings.
Life and the stock market are both about expectations, and rising above what is expected is often rewarded, while falling short can come with negative consequences. Investors might want to try to capture stronger returns by finding positive earnings surprises.
2 Stocks to Add to Your Watchlist
The Zacks Expected Surprise Prediction, or ESP, works by locking in on the most up-to-date analyst earnings revisions because they can be more accurate than estimates from weeks or even months before the actual release date. The thinking is pretty straightforward: analysts who provide earnings estimates closer to the report are likely to have more information. With this in mind, the Expected Surprise Prediction compares the Most Accurate Estimate (being the most recent) against the overall Zacks Consensus Estimate. The percentage difference provides the ESP figure.
The final step today is to look at a stock that meets our ESP qualifications. Under Armour (UAA) earns a Zacks Rank #2 30 days from its next quarterly earnings release on May 15, 2025, and its Most Accurate Estimate comes in at -$0.07 a share.
Under Armour's Earnings ESP sits at 20.75%, which, as explained above, is calculated by taking the percentage difference between the -$0.07 Most Accurate Estimate and the Zacks Consensus Estimate of -$0.09.
UAA is just one of a large group of Consumer Discretionary stocks with a positive ESP figure. Norwegian Cruise Line (NCLH) is another qualifying stock you may want to consider.
Slated to report earnings on April 30, 2025, Norwegian Cruise Line holds a #3 (Hold) ranking on the Zacks Rank, and it's Most Accurate Estimate is $0.10 a share 15 days from its next quarterly update.
Norwegian Cruise Line's Earnings ESP figure currently stands at 9.59% after taking the percentage difference between its Most Accurate Estimate and its Zacks Consensus Estimate of $0.09.
UAA and NCLH's positive ESP metrics may signal that a positive earnings surprise for both stocks is on the horizon.
Find Stocks to Buy or Sell Before They're Reported
Use the Zacks Earnings ESP Filter to turn up stocks with the highest probability of positively, or negatively, surprising to buy or sell before they're reported for profitable earnings season trading. Check it out here >>
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