The US stock markets are undergoing a positive euphoria as several analysts have started to believe the much-anticipated recession everyone was worried about for about a year now might not happen after all. This is because the Federal Reserve’s fight against inflation is slowly but surely bearing some fruit. Inflation is declining and major research institutions which were vehemently predicting recession are having second thoughts. These positive developments are having a direct impact on the consumer discretionary sector, which suffered when dark clouds were hovering over the US economy and financial markets. When things go south, consumers cut back on discretionary spending and only spend on essential items, making consumer discretionary stocks worst performers when common households are not doing good. But as recession clouds abate and consumer confidence begins to rebound, consumer discretionary stocks are back in action.
Deloitte published its State of the US Consumer report in July which shares some interesting insights that are directly linked to consumer spending and show what’s going on in US households when it comes to budget planning and spending. The report said that the percentage of respondents in the US who were concerned about their savings and who were delaying large purchases due to inflation fell in June, thanks to a clear fall in inflation. The report also said that “consumer spending intentions” rebounded in June after falling consistently for about a year. The Deloitte report retail sales jumped in May for the second straight month and they are already up about 31.6% from the pre-COVID levels.
Last month, a Wall Street Journal report highlighted an important trend that adds another positive development in the latest cycle of positive news. The report said that for several months just a handful of companies were responsible for all the gains of the S&P 500 index. But that trend is changing and major sectors are now adding to the broader market’s growth. Several stocks from the consumer discretionary sector were also noted to have added to the total market gains.
The WSJ report said that over 140 stocks in the S&P 500 index have hit fresh 52-week highs since the end of May. Some of the notable companies from the consumer sector adding to these gains include Amazon.com, Inc. (NASDAQ:AMZN), Lowe's Companies, Inc. (NYSE:LOW) andMcDonald's Corporation (NYSE:MCD).
Best Consumer Discretionary Stocks to Buy According to Hedge Funds
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Methodology
For this article we first listed all the holdings of the Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR Fund. We then chose 15 of these companies with the highest number of hedge fund investors. To gauge hedge fund sentiment we used Insider Monkey’s database of 943 hedge funds.
Best Consumer Discretionary Stocks to Buy According to Hedge Funds
Ross Stores, Inc. (NASDAQ:ROST) has performed well over the past year. Ross Stores, Inc. (NASDAQ:ROST) is up about 32% in the period.
Out of the 943 hedge funds tracked by Insider Monkey, 53 hedge funds reported owning stakes in Ross Stores, Inc. (NASDAQ:ROST). The biggest stakeholder of Ross Stores, Inc. (NASDAQ:ROST) was Jean-Marie Eveillard’s First Eagle Investment Management which owns a $401 million stake in the company.
In its Q1 earnings call, Ross Stores, Inc. (NASDAQ:ROST)’s management, in a question on its plans to recapturing margins of pre-COVID times, said:
"Our long-term operating margin improvements are to be highly dependent on us delivering strong sales over a sustained period of time. And then the question on how long do inflationary pressures persist, but — over the longer term, we believe we can achieve gradual improvement in profitability. I think if you get into like, are there any structural questions related to that? We’re seeing tangible benefit in freight cost, but we’re still — these costs still are not at pre-pandemic levels. And then we’re seeing some wage pressures in the stores. When you talk about — we’ve guided to CapEx of $810 million. So a big component of that in addition to distribution center capacity, in addition to investing in the 100 new stores, a big chunk of that is technology investments that will drive further efficiencies within the stores and in our distribution centers.
So more automation in our distribution centers and some store initiatives that we’ve touched on in the past.
Madison Mid Cap Fund made the following comment about Ross Stores, Inc. (NASDAQ:ROST) in its Q1 2023 investor letter:
“The bottom five contributors for the quarter were Ross Stores, Inc. (NASDAQ:ROST), W.R. Berkley, Gartner, Glacier Bancorp, and Carlisle. Sales trends at Ross Stores remain so-so, with flattish sales compared to a year ago. The low-to-moderate income consumer has started to struggle as stimulus payments and government support initiatives from the COVID period are wearing off, and inflation is eating away at purchasing power.”
Hospitality and entertainment company MGM Resorts International (NYSE:MGM) ranks 14th in our list of the best consumer discretionary stocks to buy according to hedge funds. Earlier in August MGM Resorts International (NYSE:MGM) posted strong Q2 results.
Adjusted EPS in the quarter came in at $0.59, beating estimates by $0.07. Revenue in the quarter jumped 20.9% year over year to $3.94 billion, surpassing estimates by $140 million.
A total of 54 hedge funds in Insider Monkey’s database of 943 hedge funds reported owning stakes in MGM Resorts International (NYSE:MGM). The biggest hedge fund stakeholder of MGM Resorts International (NYSE:MGM) was Keith Meister’s Corvex Capital which owns a $296 million stake in the company.
Cove Street Capital made the following comment about MGM Resorts International (NYSE:MGM) in its second quarter 2023 investor letter:
“As CEO Joey Levin pointed out in his Q1 quarterly letter, IAC traded at an enterprise value below its 18% stake in MGM Resorts International (NYSE:MGM) and 85% position in Angi (Ticker; ANGI)…meaning you effectively “get” 31% of Turo, the equity of publishing giant DotDash Meredith, Care.com, Vivian Health, and other IAC companies for “free”. MGM is seeing continued strength at its Vegas properties and now has the tailwind of China’s domestic re-opening for its Macau properties. This is one of our largest positions, and we remain confident in this portfolio of businesses and IAC’s ability to allocate capital.”
Caesars Entertainment, Inc. (NASDAQ:CZR) shares have gained about 30% year to date through August 6.
Out of the 943 hedge funds in Insider Monkey’s database, 56 funds reported having stakes in Caesars Entertainment, Inc. (NASDAQ:CZR) as of the end of the first quarter.
Caesars Entertainment, Inc. (NASDAQ:CZR) recently posted Q2 results for which revenue came in at higher than expected levels. Caesars Entertainment, Inc. (NASDAQ:CZR)’s management said the following in its latest earnings call:
"We delivered another strong quarter with consolidated EBITDA exceeding $1 billion. Operating trends within our property portfolio have remained strong, despite a tough year-over-year comparison, driven by a single large convention event, our Las Vegas segment delivered second best Q2, adjusted EBITDA of $512 million. Our Regional portfolio delivered $508 million in adjusted EBITDA down slightly last year. And finally, our Digital segment reported $11 million of adjusted EBITDA, the segments first quarter of profitability since we rebranded to Caesars Sportsbook in Q3 of ‘21. Underlying demand trends in Las Vegas remained strong during Q2, with occupancy growth of 100 basis points to 97.6%."
Expedia Group, Inc. (NASDAQ:EXPE) is on investors’ radar after the company posted Q2 results. While adjusted EPS for the quarter surpassed estimates, Expedia Group, Inc. (NASDAQ:EXPE) fell as its gross bookings missed estimates. Expedia Group, Inc. (NASDAQ:EXPE) said travel demand in the second quarter remained strong.
A total of 62 hedge funds tracked by Insider Monkey were long Expedia Group, Inc. (NASDAQ:EXPE) as of the end of the first quarter.
Aristotle Atlantic Core Equity Strategy made the following comment about Expedia Group, Inc. (NASDAQ:EXPE) in its first quarter 2023 investor letter:
“Expedia Group, Inc. (NASDAQ:EXPE) provides online travel services for leisure and small business travelers. The company offers a wide range of travel shopping and reservation services, as well as provides real-time access to schedule, pricing and availability information for airlines, hotels and car rental companies. Expedia serves customers worldwide.
Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc. (NYSE:HLT) in late July posted Q2 results according to which adjusted EPS in the period came in at $1.63, beating estimates by $0.05. Revenue in the quarter jumped 18.8% year over year to $2.66 billion, surpassing estimates by $100 million.
For full year 2023, system-wide RevPAR is expected to increase between 10% and 12% on a comparable and currency neutral basis compared to 2022.
Out of the 63 hedge funds that reported having stakes in Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc. (NYSE:HLT) as of the end of the first quarter, Bill Ackman’s Pershing Square had a $1.31 billion stake in the company.
Strong dividends and an evergreen business model are just two of the long list of reasons why hedge funds love McDonald's Corporation (NYSE:MCD). Recently, McDonald's Corporation (NYSE:MCD) posted strong Q2 results. Adjusted EPS in the period came in at $3.17, beating estimates by $0.38. Revenue in the quarter jumped 13.6% year over year to $6.5 billion, beating estimates by $210 million. Global comparable sales in the period jumped 11.7% in the quarter.
A total of 64 hedge funds reported having stakes in McDonald's Corporation (NYSE:MCD). The biggest stakeholder of McDonald's Corporation (NYSE:MCD) was Paul Marshall and Ian Wace’s Marshall Wace LLP with a $459 million stake in the company.
The Home Depot, Inc. (NYSE:HD) in June reaffirmed its FY’23 guidance. A total of 65 hedge funds in Insider Monkey’s database of hedge funds reported having stakes in The Home Depot, Inc. (NYSE:HD).
Home improvement company Lowe’s Companies, Inc. (NYSE:LOW) ranks 8th in our list of the best consumer discretionary stocks to buy according to hedge funds. A total of 67 hedge funds in the database of 943 hedge funds maintained by Insider Monkey held stakes in Lowe’s Companies, Inc. (NYSE:LOW) as of the end of the first quarter.
Baron Real Estate Fund made the following comment about Lowe’s Companies, Inc. (NYSE:LOW) in its first quarter 2023 investor letter:
“Lowe’s Companies, Inc. (NYSE:LOW) is the second-largest home improvement center in the U.S. The company has several competitive advantages including scale, distribution efficiencies, interconnected retail through stores/internet, excellent management, and a strong balance sheet. The company’s P/E multiple is only 14 times versus its long-term average P/E multiple of 18 times.”
Insider Monkey’s database of 943 hedge funds shows that 69 elite hedge funds had stakes in Starbucks Corporation (NASDAQ:SBUX) as of the end of the first quarter. The most significant stakeholder of Starbucks Corporation (NASDAQ:SBUX) was Ken Griffin’s Citadel Investment Group which owns a $329 million stake in the company.
Starbucks Corporation (NASDAQ:SBUX) recently posted mixed fiscal Q3 results. Starbucks Corporation (NASDAQ:SBUX)’s management talked about guidance for Q4 and full year and the company’s latest earnings call:
“Despite the macroeconomic environment variables, we are poised to move our earnings growth guidance as it reflects the strength of our brand globally and the long-term durability that we are building through our reinvention plan. As it relates to our remaining guidance, we are pleased to reaffirm full year guidance on all other measures. As a reminder, that includes revenue growth of 10% to 12%, global comp growth near the high end of 7% to 9% and solid margin expansion. Store growth, capital spend and tax rate guidance also remain unchanged from what we shared previously. As a reminder, we expect an unfavorable impact from foreign currency translation of approximately 2 percentage points to 3 percentage points on fiscal year 2023 revenue and earnings, respectively.
The London Company Large Cap Strategy made the following comment about Starbucks Corporation (NASDAQ:SBUX) in its second quarter 2023 investor letter:
“Starbucks Corporation (NASDAQ:SBUX) – Sentiment on SBUX turned more negative in this uncertain macro environment with the impending return of student loan payments in the U.S. SBUX reported very strong results for the Jan-March quarter, but exercised caution by not raising guidance. SBUX is beginning to realize tailwinds from the re-opening of the Chinese economy, adding a buffer to growth and margins for the remainder of the year.”
General Motors Company (NYSE:GM) ranks 6th in our list of the best consumer discretionary stocks to buy according to hedge funds. General Motors Company (NYSE:GM) recently posted strong Q2 results and also upped its full-year 2023 guidance. In the second quarter General Motors Company (NYSE:GM)’s adjusted EPS in the period came in $1.91, beating estimates by $0.08. Revenue in the period jumped 25.1% year over year to $44.75 billion, surpassing estimates by $2.39 billion. Like GM, Amazon.com, Inc. (NASDAQ:AMZN), Lowe's Companies, Inc. (NYSE:LOW) andMcDonald's Corporation (NYSE:MCD) are some of the best consumer discretionary stocks to buy according to hedge funds.
