That could change. The reeling economy could improve come fall, probably the one thing Trump needs most. A surprise vaccine breakthrough could hasten the end of the coronavirus pandemic. The fumbly Biden could self-destruct in some way. Trump obviously beat long odds in 2016, and he could do it again.
A core problem for Trump, however, is that he’s out of step with the U.S. electorate on many issues. Trump famously caters to his loyal base, with midwestern working-class whites at the core. But Trump alienates moderates and Independents who might otherwise support him with hardline base-pleasing policies on issues such as immigration, climate change and, now, “law and order.” Trump can recover in the polls somewhat, but it’s not clear he can win over voters who disagree with him on so many issues, such as these:
Reopening schools. Trump is pushing hard for schools everywhere to fully reopen in the fall, regardless of coronavirus levels. This might convey a sense of normalcy as voters decide whether to give Trump a second term in November. But only 22% of Americans think schools should reopen more or less normally. Nearly one-third say schools shouldn’t open at all, and 46% say they should open only with major adjustments to keep kids and teachers safe.
Tax returns. Fifty-six percent of Americans say Trump should release his tax returns, as every major presidential candidate has done since the 1970s. Trump, of course, refuses.
Is Trump aligned with voters on any key issues? It’s probably fair to say most Americans are as eager as Trump to reopen the economy and get back to normal, even if there are major differences on how. There’s broad support for addressing China’s trade abuses, as Trump has done. And most Americans would like to see more products made in America, as Trump has pushed for. Trump has not accomplished much of that agenda in his first three-and-a-half years, however, which weakens his case for another four years.