In this article, we will take a look at the 11 fastest declining cities in Texas. If you would like to skip our discussion on the Texas economy, you can go to the 5 Fastest Declining Cities in Texas.
Texas, the second-largest US state by land area, also has the second-highest GDP of $2.4 trillion as of 2022. The economy experienced a growth rate of 7.7% year-on-year during the third quarter of 2023, which is higher than the USA’s overall economic growth. This was the fourth consecutive quarter when the state’s economic growth surpassed the nation’s economic growth. The state’s economy is also the 8th largest in the world, surpassing the economies of individual nations like Canada and Australia. Texas is also a leader in exports, which exceed $486 billion annually, surpassing the combined exports of California and New York. These exports account for 22% of the total exports of the USA. It consistently ranks among the top states for job creation, with an employment gain of 3.1% in 2023.
The economy of Texas thrives on a wide range of industries, including corporate services, IT, aerospace and defense, biomedical research, manufacturing, and energy. Moreover, many famous companies are headquartered in Texas, such as Dell Technologies Inc. (NYSE:DELL), Schlumberger Limited (NYSE:SLB), AT&T Inc. (NYSE:T), Caterpillar Inc. (NYSE:CAT), Oracle Corporation (NYSE:ORCL), Exxon Mobil Corporation (NYSE: XOM) and Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA). The state also won the Business Facilities’ State of the Year 2023 award for its business-friendly environment, including legislation and incentives. Due to its favorable business environment, it has managed to attract more than 290 companies since 2015 to set up their headquarters within the state.
Here's what Baron Funds said about Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) in its Q4 2023 investor letter:
“Tesla, Inc. (NASDAQ:TSLA) designs, manufactures, and sells electric vehicles, related software and components, and solar and energy storage products. Tesla’s stock declined slightly in the period because the core automotive segment remained under pressure. A complex macroeconomic environment, higher interest rates, a two-week factory shutdown, and Tesla’s car price reductions throughout the year pressured its near-term growth and margin profile. Nonetheless, Tesla continues to generate sufficient gross profit to support robust product development. Tesla also started to deliver its highly anticipated Cybertruck, its first pickup truck. There has been tremendous consumer interest in the truck and new technologies within the vehicle and its manufacturing lines. Tesla’s refreshed Model 3 also seems to be generating strong demand while improving unit-level economics. We anticipate a new lower priced vehicle being introduced next year to address a much larger market segment. Finally, investors expect Tesla to benefit from its investment in AI through development of autonomous driving technology Dojo (an AI training computer), Autobidder (an automated energy trading platform), and Humanoid (a human-like robot).”
It is predicted that during 2024, the pace of economic growth within Texas will be slower. Among the economic risks for the economy are the high growth of 4.6% in the state’s consumer price index, geo-political uncertainty, and US Election uncertainty. Still, the state’s economy is expected to grow at a faster pace than the USA. On the social front, the latest census shows that the population of Texas has grown to 30 million residents. However, the census also shows that more than half the counties of Texas have actually lost population. In fact, the out-migration of the young population and the downturn in the oil and gas sector have led to a dwindling population in the rural areas of the state. Moreover, a study by Texas A&M Rural and Community Development Initiatives shows that the outmigration of young people from rural areas is resulting in an aging workforce and a decline in the workforce in these areas. Hence, most of the citizens of the state reside in metropolitan cities. On the other hand, some areas in the state are experiencing a population increase, with Austin and Georgetown being among the 10 fastest growing cities of Texas. You can also check out the 17 Fastest Growing Cities in the US here.
11 Fastest Declining Cities in Texas
An aerial view of a large, newly constructed residential community in Arlington, Texas.
Our Methodology
To shortlist the 11 fastest declining cities in Texas, we consulted a study conducted by Finance Buzz that analyzed 117 US cities with a population of over 200,000. The population growth and decline in cities were examined over a three-year span, beginning with the last complete pre-pandemic year (2019) till 2022. We also cross-referenced the data with the US Census Bureau to ensure accuracy. The fastest declining cities in Texas have been listed in ascending order of their 3-year population change. It is important to note that although some of these cities have seen population growth over the three-year period, there has been a slowdown in this growth, and forecasts predict eventual declines in population.
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11 Fastest-Declining Cities in Texas
11. Fort Worth
3-Year Population Change: 5.18%
2020 – 2021 Population Change: 1.82%
Fort Worth, situated in North Central Texas, has experienced a 19.8% decline in per capita income between 2019-2022. Furthermore, recent enrollment data from Fort Worth Independent School District reveals a continuous decline for the fifth consecutive year. The current student count stands at approximately 75,385, marking a significant 13.8% decrease from the district's peak enrollment of 87,428 students recorded in the 2016-17 school year.
10. Lubbock
3-Year Population Change: 1.96%
2020 – 2021 Population Change: −0.57%
Lubbock, a small city in Texas, is also known as a college town. The percentage of vacant housing in the city stands at 8.2% as of 2022. Additionally, its home value change has been recorded at -12.9% between 2019 and 2022. The decrease in population growth rate in the city could be due to its distance from major cities in Texas, leading to a considerable number of individuals leaving in search of better job opportunities. Furthermore, Lubbock is predominantly conservative, with a majority of its residents being white, potentially making it challenging for individuals of other races to settle in. Lubbock is in the tenth place on our list of 11 fastest declining cities in Texas.
9. Plano
3-Year Population Change: 0.65%
2020 – 2021 Population Change: -2.32%
Plano, Texas, offers a great living environment with excellent schools and plenty of other activities. However, Plano’s population is declining rapidly. From 2020 to 2021, the population of Plano dropped from 288,870 to 282,181, representing a decrease of -2.32%. This may have been a result of migration due to better job opportunities. The young population often prefers being located in places with a presence of popular companies like Exxon Mobil Corporation (NYSE:XOM), Dell Technologies Inc. (NYSE:DELL), and Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA). Furthermore, the per capita income in the city has experienced a decline of -38.9% over a period of three years. Although Plano is considered safe, it's expensive to live in, and there's not much public transportation. Another factor for the population decline could be the extremely hot summers due to global warming and the occasional tornado warnings.
8. Garland
3-Year Population Change: 0.39%
2020 – 2021 Population Change: -0.55%
Garland, Texas, is a suburban city. The deceleration in the population of the city has been due to many factors like demographic shifts, economic changes, and migration patterns, impacting the city's growth negatively. Job opportunities and the lower cost of living in other areas have encouraged residents to move away from Garland. In Garland, the employment rate experienced a slight decrease of 0.10% between 2019 and 2022, while the percentage of vacant housing rose to 5.7% as of 2022. Garland is in the eighth place on our list of 11 fastest declining cities in Texas.
7. El Paso
3-Year Population Change: -0.75%
2020 – 2021 Population Change: 1.14%
El Paso, located in Texas, has desert landscapes against the backdrop of the Franklin Mountains. Since 2012, El Paso has experienced a trend of more people moving away than arriving each year. This migration loss is the largest among any urban county west of the Mississippi River in the continental United States. Data suggests that individuals are leaving El Paso to relocate to larger cities in search of job opportunities, improved lifestyles, and better educational opportunities. Added to this, El Paso also suffers from harsh weather conditions, water shortages, and lack of public transport, forcing people to look for a better city to live in.
6. Houston
3-Year Population Change: -0.75%
2020 – 2021 Population Change: −0.862%
Houston ranks as the fourth-largest city in the US and is known to be one of the most populous cities in Texas. This city is known for its expanding energy sector and has many professional sports franchises. The city has experienced a population decline of 0.75% and a per capita income decline of 8.5 % between 2019 and 2022. Other factors leading to the city's declining population include limited public transportation, high heat and humidity, susceptibility to tropical storms, and high sales tax rates. The city's limited public transport forces residents to own cars, thereby increasing the overall cost of living.
