In this article, we will take a detailed look at the 11 Best Retail Dividend Stocks to Buy. If you want to skip our detailed analysis of the retail industry and see the top 5 stocks in this list, click5 Best Retail Dividend Stocks to Buy.
Investors are slowly beginning to give up on hopes of seeing any rate cuts this year, as inflation remains stick and jobs data strong. Consumer and retail stocks are highly sensitive to interest rates as state of the consumer defines the trajectory of profits of retail companies. In the last quarter of 2023 through early 2024, retail stocks were rising as investors were confident that the Fed would begin cutting rates. The SPDR S&P Retail ETF (NYSEARCA:XRT) gained over 30% since October through the end of March. But amid declining market sentiment, the ETF is down 4.5 over the past one month. Earlier this month, a Bloomberg report said, citing brokerage data from Goldman Sachs Group Inc., that hedge funds were growing bearish on US stocks, especially consumer companies, as data shows they were cutting long positions and shorting retail ETFs.
"Resilience of Consumption"
But for long-term investors, consumer and retail stocks remain attractive choices. Latest data from the Commerce Department shows consumer spending still remains strong, driven by services, healthcare and insurance. A Wall Street Journal report cited Eugenio Alemán, chief economist at the investment firm Raymond James, who said that US domestic economy is still "doing well." Data for March shows retail sales jumped 0.7% during the month, much more than the estimated 0.3% rise.
A strong jobs market and years of savings are giving consumers enough leeway to keep spending despite rising interest rates. According to Andrew Hunter, deputy chief US economist at Capital Economics, this "resilience of consumption" would translate into the Fed not cutting interest rates until at least September this year, according to a Bloomberg report.
Long-Term Outlook of Retail Industry
Whether or not the Fed begins to cut rates, long-term investors focused on retail stocks are paying attention to secular growth catalysts for the industry. Amid income growth, changing consumer trends, rise of ecommerce and new shopping categories, retail stocks and the consumer industry in general is set to thrive. Holiday sales in 2023 jumped 3.8% to reach a record $964.4 billion. The Black Friday weekend retail store traffic also jumped 1.5% from the previous year. The National Retail Federation expects retail sales in the US to grow anywhere between 2.5% and 3.5% YoY to reach $5.23 trillion and $5.28 trillion this year.
The retail industry is benefitting from the simultaneous rise of ecommerce and brick-and-mortar shopping experience. A 2024 outlook report published by Cart.com entitled State of the Retail Consumer cited a survey in which 42% of the total respondents said that they planned to spend more online in the next 12 months. Ecommerce revenue around the world was expected to grow at a CAGR of 9.8% between 2024 through 2028 to reach $3.65 trillion. The report cited National Retail Federation, which has said in a report that AI is causing retail companies to make decisions faster as the technology is "blowing the lid off constraints" for business.
Major retailers are starting to talk about how AI is helping them increase productivity and cut costs. For example, Target in its March earnings call said:
"We’re using generative AI to power our product detail pages to provide more friendly and relevant explanations of what guests wanna know about our assortment.
Walmart's CEO Doug McMillan also talked about how generative AI was helping the company during Q4'2023 earnings call:
"The way generative AI helped us really improve a solution-oriented search experience for customers and members is the thing that we’re most excited about and it happened pretty quickly and it impacted Super Bowl search results. We gave you an example of Valentine’s Day earlier and the team is learning how to do that across all of our markets and the entirety of the company. So that’s also exciting. We also rolled out something we call My Assistant on our Me@Walmart applications so that all of our associates have access to generative AI tools and capabilities.
Photo by Dan Dennis on UnsplashMethodology For this article we scanned Insider Monkey's database of 933 hedge funds and picked 11 retail stocks that pay dividends with the highest number of hedge fund investors. We preferred retail companies with strong dividend growth history and fundamentals. Why do we pay attention to hedge fund sentiment? Hedge funds’ top 10 consensus stock picks outperformed the S&P 500 Index by more than 140 percentage points over the last 10 years (see the details here). Don't Miss: 10 Extreme Dividend Stocks to Buy
Best Buy Co. Inc (NYSE:BBY) announced an increase in its dividend in March, cementing its position as a solid dividend growth stock. Best Buy Co. Inc (NYSE:BBY) has increased its dividend payout at a rate of about 20% since 2014. The stock's dividend yield of 5% is also above the industry average.
Of the 933 funds tracked by Insider Monkey, Cliff Asness's AQR Capital Management had the most significant stake in Best Buy Co. Inc (NYSE:BBY), valued at $86 million.
“We added two smaller positions to the portfolio in the fourth quarter as well—Piper Sandler (PIPR) and Best Buy Co., Inc. (NYSE:BBY)–both of which are Minnesota-based. We also initiated a position in Best Buy, a leading electronics retailer with more than 1,000 stores nationwide. We’ve been impressed with management’s ability to navigate a difficult retail landscape, gaining share amongst its offline competitors. The consumer electronics market is suffering from a spending hangover after the Pandemic, but we are starting to see green shoots of a recovery; in the meantime, Best Buy offers a 5% dividend.”
Dick's Sporting Goods Inc (NYSE:DKS) shares jumped last month after Dick's Sporting Goods Inc (NYSE:DKS) increased its dividend by 10% and also announced better-than-expected Q4 results.
Dollar General Corporation (NYSE:DG) shares are in the spotlight after the company posted strong Q4 results last month. Dollar General Corporation (NYSE:DG) saw an increase in traffic at its stores. Analysts also believe the bankruptcy of 99 Cents Only Stores would help Dollar General Corporation (NYSE:DG) in the long term.
As of the end of the fourth quarter of 2023, 47 hedge funds out of the 933 funds tracked by Insider Monkey had stakes in Dollar General Corporation (NYSE:DG).
“Our biggest full-year detractors included energy holdings Schlumberger and EOG and 2023 purchases Baxter International and Dollar General Corporation (NYSE:DG). Dollar General, a discount retail chain in the US, has dealt with a few struggles. The retailer had previously benefited from COVID stimulus checks, reflected in the bump it experienced in revenues and margins. However, the effects have worn off, and its core consumer has been hurt by inflation, stiffer economic conditions, lower tax refunds and reduced SNAP benefits. Margins are also under pressure due to labor costs, shrink and markdowns. Some of the issues are likely self-inflicted. After years of focusing on store growth to drive the top line, store standards have suffered. Addressing store standards is needed to turn around flagging traffic, comps and customer satisfaction. On the positive side, discount retail due to its trade-down feature tends to be a defensive business during economic slowdowns. Dollar General has a strong market position and faces less competition than other discounters due to its largely rural footprint. The business’s value proposition is everyday low prices, a convenient format and proximity. The company has leverage due to capital expenditures, but interest coverage of ~9X is strong. From a valuation perspective, the froth from the pandemic, when it traded in the low- to mid-twenties, is gone. So, we aren’t paying for margin upside or store growth. Those would be bonuses. If the company can continue to grow revenues, generate cash flow and buy back stock, we still see a path to success.”
Supermarkets company Kroger Co (NYSE:KR) is one of the best retail dividend stocks to buy according to hedge funds. With an over 2% dividend yield and about more than 15 years of consistent dividend increases under its belt, Kroger Co (NYSE:KR) remains a coveted dividend stock as well as a consumer defensive play.
As of the end of the fourth quarter of 2023, 45 hedge funds tracked by Insider Monkey had stakes in Kroger Co (NYSE:KR).
“The Kroger Co. (NYSE:KR) (U.S.) is the second-largest grocery retailer in America, behind only Walmart. Although the grocery industry is highly competitive, Kroger’s scale advantages allow it to offer a more compelling value proposition than smaller peers and earn higher returns on capital. In recent years, the market has assigned Kroger a lower multiple due to concerns that e-commerce would disrupt traditional brick-and-mortar grocery businesses. However, we believe Kroger’s performance through the pandemic highlighted that its store footprint, distribution infrastructure, technology investments and strong brand all position the company well for a world with higher online grocery adoption. The stock trades for just 10x our estimate of next year’s EPS, which we believe is attractive given Kroger’s competitive positioning and earnings growth outlook. The pending merger with Albertsons could accelerate the company’s earnings growth and produce additional scale advantages. If the merger is not approved, the company will have the capacity to return over 25% of its market cap to shareholders.”
Earlier this month, Costco Wholesale Corporation (NASDAQ:COST) increased its dividend by 13.7%. The new dividend is payable May 10 to the shareholders of record as of April 26. Costco Wholesale Corporation (NASDAQ:COST) has about two decades of dividend growth under its belt and it's also known for giving pleasant surprises to investors with special dividends. It paid a special dividend in 2020 and also a hefty $15 per share special dividend last year.
Madison Sustainable Equity Fund stated the following regarding Costco Wholesale Corporation (NASDAQ:COST) in its fourth quarter 2023 investor letter:
“Costco Wholesale Corporation (NASDAQ:COST) reported solid holiday results and announced a special dividend of $15 per share. Earnings were better than expected driven by better gross margin. Same store sales were 3.9% with solid traffic. Costco also noted better discretionary trends and solid seasonal sales.”
With more than 50 years of consistent dividend hikes and a strong retail business, Target Corporation (NYSE:TGT) easily takes one of the top spots in our list of the best retail dividend stocks to buy according to hedge funds. Of the 58 hedge funds that reported having stakes in Target Corporation (NYSE:TGT) as of the end of 2023, Ric Dillon's Diamond Hill Capital reported a $401 million stake in Target Corporation (NYSE:TGT).
Other top contributors in Q4 included Allstate, American International Group (AIG) and Target Corporation (NYSE:TGT). US-based mass retailer Target is capitalizing on cleaner inventory, lower freight costs and improved efficiency to improve profitability — and investors rewarded shares accordingly in Q4.
