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After RBC Capital Markets and Bank of America strategists made calls for a 5,000 year-end point target for the S&P 500 (^GSPC) in 2024, Deutsche Bank and BMO are predicting the index could reach as high as 5,100 next year.
Tematica Research Chief Investment Officer Chris Versace tells Yahoo Finance that these "numbers could be a little lofty even if the Fed begins to cut rates at the middle of the year." Versace goes on to share his own 2024 predictions for the S&P 500.
Click here to watch the full interview on the Yahoo Finance YouTube page or you can watch this full episode of Yahoo Finance Live here.
This post was written by Luke Carberry Mogan.
Video Transcript
DIANE KING HALL: New bulls have entered the ring.
Both BMO Capital Markets and Deutsche Bank out this morning with calls for the S&P 500 to end 2024 at 5,100.
Deutsche Bank strategists say they expect earnings growth to stay resilient and offset a, quote, "mild, short US recession."
Deutsche Bank's call comes after RBC Capital and a Bank of America last week both predicted the index would hit 5,000 in the new year.
Amid these bullish calls, what's on deck for the market into year end?
What should investors consider for 2024?
Joining us now is Chris Versace, Tematica research chief investment officer.
Chris, thanks so much for joining us as usual.
So let's talk about your expectations for 2024 and especially when you think about these calls.
What's the outlook that you have?
CHRIS VERSACE: Well, I have to say those outlooks are, I mean, they're very bullish.
And I think we'd all love to see them happen.
The big question to me really underpins earnings growth for next year.
You take a look at the S&P 500.
It's been flat pretty much this year.
And the consensus expectation is earnings have to grow more than 11%.
Call it, you know, 245 a share in 2024.
And then you have to take a look at the multiple that we're going to place on that from a PE perspective to hit that 5,000, 5,100 range.
They're very, very lofty compared to where we've seen the S&P 500 tend to peak out around 2000 to just last year, the average PE high is around 19 times.
So I don't want to be a Debbie Downer for the viewers out there, but those numbers could be a little lofty even if the Fed begins to cut rates at the middle of the year.
SEANA SMITH: So, Chris, if those numbers are a little bit lofty, I guess what is your more realistic, to put it in your words, I guess, outlook from here till the end of 2024?
CHRIS VERSACE: So I think we're going to probably be, if we hit, you know, 4,600 come back in December and then rally towards the end of the year, which is the growing narrative for the market, I think we're going to continue to move higher.