US economy is in 'middling' phase as Fed fights inflation
US market averages (^DJI, ^IXIC, ^GSPC) closed Monday's session higher after last week's sell-off. NorthEnd Private Wealth CIO Alex McGrath joins Market Domination Overtime to discuss the state of the market ahead of the Federal Reserve's first interest rate cut. "We're coming off the back end of a pretty long inflation battle here with rates being at historic peaks. And, you know, you look at the underlying macro data that we're staring at every day, and it's not exceptional, but it's not bad either. It's just kind of in this middling phase. And certainly a much better start to this week than we had last week," McGrath explains. He argues that the Fed's cuts will not immediately come to the rescue as its cuts will likely "take time to work through." He adds, "I don't think you have to look much further than a lot of the numbers we've seen from the consumer discretionary companies, where they're slashing forecast because the demand just isn't there like it has been. And that's not entirely surprising." While inflation is down, he argues, "the problem is there's 20 to 30% built up in there that's still increasing on a month-over-month basis. And it's just the consumer's got to get tapped out at some point. And I'm not saying that's like a death and destruction phase coming, but you are starting to see inklings of that." However, easing rates should help counter that issue. Moving forward, McGrath believes the equities market "could be a bit rocky," so investors should take more of a defensive approach and take a position in sectors like industrials (XLI), utilities (XLU), healthcare (XLV), real estate (XLRE), and consumer staples (XLP). He also recommends semiconductors, calling them "the new industrial." On the fixed-income side, he argues that "it's probably time to start taking some duration there" as the Fed kicks off its rate easing cycle. For more expert insight and the latest market action, click here to watch this full episode of Market Domination Overtime. This post was written by Melanie Riehl
