Trump's tricky tax ploy
Gimmicks abound during the “silly season” of presidential election campaigns, when candidates make their most grandiose claims and promises. But President Trump may be raising (or lowering) the bar.
In an Aug. 8 executive memorandum, Trump directed the Treasury Department to “defer” collection of the payroll tax that most Americans pay, from Sept. 1 through Dec. 31. The payroll tax is a 7.65% mandatory deduction that helps fund Social Security and Medicare. So somebody making $50,000 per year would save about $1,300 during the four-month period. Trump’s order applies only to incomes up to $2,000 per week, or $104,000 per year, giving it some populist flavor.
There’s a problem, though. Since it’s a tax deferral, not tax forgiveness, workers would owe the tax back in 2021. The point of that is dubious, since people who need the money most to buy essentials now would be the least likely to come up with the payback amount next year. The obvious solution, politically, is to make the tax deferral a permanent tax cut once the money is due back.
Trump says he’ll do that—if elected to a second term. After signing the directive on Aug. 8, Trump said he’ll “terminate” the tax permanently if he gets reelected, so that nobody would have to repay it. Joe Biden, Trump’s Democratic opponent, called Trump’s payroll tax cut “reckless” and described it as an attack on Social Security, indicating he opposes the whole idea and won’t forgive the tax if he wins in November.
Trump, therefore, has created a framework in which he can claim a gift to workers that they only get to keep if they vote for him in November. If Biden wins, they’ll have to give the money back. Trump is the giver, Biden is the taker. A vote for Trump is a vote for keeping money in your pocket. A vote for Biden is like opening your wallet to Uncle Sam.
Will voters buy it? It depends which candidate wins the messaging war during the next 11 weeks. Biden’s challenge seems easier. Social Security and Medicare are very popular programs, especially among the seniors they benefit. By pulling about $100 billion in funding from the two programs, Trump is touching the “third rail of politics” and hoping seniors—who vote in higher proportion than any other age group—won’t punish him. Biden is already hammering Trump for endangering seniors’ livelihoods.
There’s also the irritating matter of Congress, which would have to pass legislation in order to forgive any tax owed by law. It’s already questionable whether Trump can legally defer the collection of taxes, as he has proposed. It’s clear he can’t cancel, raise or lower taxes on his own, without legislation. There’s essentially no chance Republicans will take control of the House in November, so at best a reelected Trump would have to deal with a split Congress, as he does now.