Russia presented 'evidence' today of Turkey's oil ties to ISIS — but it has a crucial flaw

The Russian Ministry of Defense (MOD) presented "evidence" on Wednesday that ISIS had been smuggling oil onto Turkish soil to be purchased by Turkey's president "and his family."

The MOD highlighted three main routes ISIS — aka the Islamic State or ISIL — had allegedly been using to transport illicit oil into Turkey: via the Bab al-Hawa and Bab al-Salameh border gates in Syria's Idlib Province, Hasakah Province in northeastern Syria, and Zakho in Iraqi Kurdistan on the Iraqi-Turkish border.

Russia ISIS smuggling routes
Russia ISIS smuggling routes

(Google Maps)

As many analysts were quick to point out on Twitter, however, none of these routes are primarily controlled by the Islamic State.

Bab al-Hawa and Bab al-Salameh are dominated by rebel groups associated with the Free Syrian Army, and control over Hasakah Province is divided between the regime of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad and the US-backed Kurdish-Arab coalition. Zakho, Iraq, meanwhile, lies within the jurisdiction of the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG).

"If you look at the map, it looks like ISIS is smuggling oil through Kurdish-controlled territories in both Iraq and Syria to Turkey," Kurdish expert Wladimir van Wilgenburg, of the Jamestown Foundation, told Business Insider on Wednesday.

"Relations between the YPG and Turkey aren't so good, to say the least, so it seems implausible," van Wilgenburg added. "It would be more logical if the Russians would suggest ISIS is smuggling oil to Syrian-Turkish controlled IS border towns like Jarabulus."

Jarabulus is currently the only Syrian-border crossing under full ISIS control. The crossing in Tal Abyad on the Turkish-Syrian border was re-captured from ISIS by Kurdish forces in June.

In the above map, originally created by the skillful @LCarabinier, van Wilgenburg uses arrows to show how it would make more logistical sense for ISIS to smuggle oil to Turkey through ISIS-controlled areas — shaded gray — than through Kurdish-held areas, shaded orange.

It is possible that ISIS could have smuggled oil via Sinjar before it was re-captured by US-backed Kurds last month, but that would only help the group smuggle oil to its Raqqa stronghold in Syria — not to Turkey.

Iraq Syria Sinjar Map
Iraq Syria Sinjar Map

(Screenshot Via Google Maps)

In any case, the Russian MOD released additional satellite imagery that it said showed ISIS oil tankers crossing the border from Iraq and Syria into Turkey, adding that this was only the "first part" of its evidence of the Turkey-ISIS relationship and that more will be revealed next week.