October retail sales add further complexity to Fed rate cut bets

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Updated at 9:23 AM EST

U.S. retail sales rose firmly again last month, Commerce Department data indicated Friday, suggesting consumer spending and sentiment remains healthy into the final stretch of 2024 and should support broader growth prospects heading into next year.

Headline sales rose 0.4% last month to a collective tally of $718.9 billion, stronger than economists' consensus forecast of a 0.3% gain but around half the pace of the revised gain of 0.8% for September, which was reset at $716 billion.

The closely tracked control-group number, which excludes autos, building materials, office supplies, gas-station sales and tobacco, and feeds into the government's GDP calculations, slipped 0.1% on the month, falling notably shy of the Wall Street consensus forecast of a 0.3% gain.

The September control group reading, however, was revised firmly higher to a gain of 1.2%.

Fed Chair Jerome Powell told an investment forum in Dallas Thursday that the economy is 'not sending any signals that we need to be in a hurry to lower rates.'<br><p>Olivier Douliery&sol;Bloomberg via Getty Images</p>
Fed Chair Jerome Powell told an investment forum in Dallas Thursday that the economy is 'not sending any signals that we need to be in a hurry to lower rates.'

Olivier Douliery/Bloomberg via Getty Images

"Retail sales inched past economists' expectations, but it was the September revisions that really stood out," said Brent Kenwell, U.S. investment analysts at eToro. "At the time, the prior month’s readings came in significantly ahead of estimates and are now being revised even higher. It reflects a resilient US consumer even as some economic readings have cast doubt on the economy."

"While it seems like a 'catch-all' to shoulder some of the blame on Hurricanes Milton and Helene, that could have also provided some disruption to last month’s retail sales figures," he added. "Either way, the November and December sales periods are going to be critical for retailers and that’s what investors are likely focused on."

U.S. stocks extended declines following the data release, as traders bet that the solid spending tally could further pare bets on an end-of-year rate cut from the Federal Reserve.

Futures contracts tied to the S&P 500 suggest a 30 point opening bell decline while those linked to the Dow Jones Industrial Average are called 140 points lower. The tech-focused Nasdaq is priced for a 180 point pullback.