This week, spot bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) saw their largest withdrawals since May, with $541 million in outflows recorded on Monday.
"The primary factor fueling the halt in inflows might hinge on the U.S. presidential election this week,” Agne Linge, WeFi’s head of growth, told TheStreet Crypto. “In what many call the most pivotal election in recent times, the yet-to-be-clarified outcome has enervated investors. For now, many are adopting a wait-and-see approach, as either candidate might temporarily tilt the market balance.”
Despite the longstanding regulatory ambiguity hanging over the industry, both presidential candidates have recently offered overtures to the crypto community, including by promising greater regulatory clarity. However, bitcoin has historically experienced increased volatility during election cycles and periods of political uncertainty. “Until the election results are announced, risk assets will stay unattractive,” Linge told TheStreet Crypto. “This might ultimately pressure bitcoin, a reality most BlackRock IBIT investors might need to avoid.”
In the weeks after the election, bitcoin’s price might hover between $60,000 and $80,000 based on the most popular bets investors are placing on potential price increases and decreases, according to new data from the Deribit exchange.
This past March, bitcoin hit a record of $73,798 after being boosted by the debut of bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) this January. Despite its inherent volatility, bitcoin’s value has skyrocketed 60% this year, outpacing stable investments like gold.
The Federal Reserve is scheduled to announce another interest rate cut after a similar move in September, with most analysts expecting a 0.25% reduction later this week. This decision could have a major impact on financial markets, according to Linge. “In the long-term, bitcoin will benefit because cutting interest rates aids the money lending market with more readily available liquidity. This liquidity dilutes the value of the U.S dollar, whose purchasing power and store of wealth are pushed down considerably. If this happens, investors will explore more alternative hedges against inflations – a role BlackRock’s IBIT plays for many."