Goldman Sachs: The Olympics won't save Brazil

The Olympics are always a time to celebrate the highest physical and mental achievements while celebrating cultural diversity. But according to Alberto Ramos and his team at Goldman Sachs, this doesn’t translate to economic prowess for the hosting country.

“These are not the happiest of times in Brazil as the economy is going through one of the longest and deepest economic contractions in recorded history, the unemployment rate has surged to double digits, and federal and local governments are grappling with deteriorating public finances,” he wrote in a note to clients.

Investment in Brazil relating to the 2014 FIFA Soccer World Cup and the upcoming 2016 Summer Olympic Games did pick up significantly.

The operating cost to run the events—sourced and funded by the private sector, including sponsors—is estimated to be about $2.4 billion, according to Ramos. Investment and expenses related to sports facilities and other projects are estimated to exceed $2.1 billion, about 60% of which is funded by the private sector. And projects that increase federal, state and municipal investment in infrastructure—like the expansion of subway lines—are estimated to cost $7.6 billion. The majority of these investments have been funded through public-private partnerships (PPPs), according to Garzarelli, with about 40% of the cost funded by private sector sources.

Nonetheless,Ramos notes that this investment is nowhere near large enough to boost the $1.8 trillion economy of Brazil.

“We believe the World Cup and Olympics related investment was just too small to generate a significant economic dividend/impulse given the sheer size of the economy,” he wrote. “Furthermore, due to a number of large macroeconomic imbalances that have grown and permeated the economy and the severe drop in confidence indicators, total investment spending has actually been contracting uninterruptedly for 2 and a half years.”

Overall, gross fixed investment has declined by 27.0% between the fourth quarter of 2013 and the first quarter of 2016, now hovering at the same level as the second quarter of 2009.

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Difficult economic times

Brazil went from strong single-digit growth 5 years ago to a deep 2-year economic recession that brought the GDP level to that of the fourth quarter in 2010, with a cumulative decline in per capita real GDP of 9%, according to Ramos.

This was due to a combination of domestic and external factors.

“The external backdrop turned less friendly: commodity prices declined, which resulted in a deterioration in Brazil’s terms of trade, and global liquidity conditions,” he said. “But the main driver of the sharp deterioration in the economy was the … interventionist domestic policy mix, which ended up creating a number of large imbalances. Expansionary fiscal and credit policies led to a meaningful decline in the savings rate of the economy and a deterioration in both the current account and the fiscal balances.”